Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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Based on different current long-term energy scenarios the paper discusses the future perspectives of hydrogen in the German energy system as a representative example for the development of sustainable energy systems. The scenario analysis offers varying outlines of the future energy system that determine the possible role of hydrogen. The paper discusses the possibilities of expanding the share of renewable energy and the resulting prospects for establishing clean hydrogen production from renewable energy sources. Emphasis is given to the questions of an ecologically efficient allocation of limited renewable energy resources that can only be assessed from asystems analysis perspective. Findings from recent studies for Germany reveal a strong competition between the direct input into the electricity system and an indirect use as fuel in the transport sector. Moreover, the analysis underlines the paramount importance of reducing energy demand as the inevitable prerequisite for any renewable energy system.
Because of high efficiency, low environmental impacts and a potential role in transforming our energy system into a hydrogen economy, fuel cells are often considered as a key technology for a sustainable energy supply. However, the future framing conditions under which stationary fuel cells have to prove their technical and economic competitiveness are most likely characterised by a reduced demand for space heating, and a growing contribution of renewable energy sources to heat and electricity supply, which both directly limit the potential for combined heat and power generation, and thus also for fuelcells. Taking Germany as a case study, this paper explores the market potential of stationaryfuelcells under the structural changes of the energy demand and supply system required to achieve asustainable energy supply. Results indicate that among the scenarios analysed it is in particular a strategy oriented towards ambitious CO2-reduction targets, which due to its changes in the supply structure is in a position to mobilise a market potential that might be large enough for a successful fuel cell commercialisation. However, under the conditions of a business-as-usual trajectory the sales targets of fuel cell manufacturers cannot be met.