Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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For some time, 3D printing has been a major buzzword of innovation in industrial production. It was considered a game changer concerning the way industrial goods are produced. There were early expectations that it might reduce the material, energy and transport intensity of value chains. However for quite a while, the main real world applications of additive manufacturing (AM) have been some rapid prototyping and the home-based production of toys made from plastics. On this limited basis, any hypotheses regarding likely impacts on industrial energy efficiency appeared to be premature. Notwithstanding the stark contrast between early hype and practical use, the diffusion of AM has evolved to an extent that at least for some applications allows for a preliminary assessment of its likely implications for energy efficiency.
Unlike many cross-cutting energy efficiency technologies, energy use of AM may vary substantially depending on industry considered and material used for processing. Moreover, AM may have much greater repercussions on other stages of value chains than conventional cross-cutting energy efficiency technologies. In case of AM with metals the following potential determinants of energy efficiency come to mind:
- A reduction of material required per unit of product and used during processing;
- Changes in the total number and spatial allocation of certain stages of the value chain; and
- End-use energy efficiency of final products.
At the same time, these various streams of impact on energy efficiency may be important drivers for the diffusion of AM with metals. This contribution takes stock of AM with metals concerning applications and processes used as well as early evidence on impacts on energy efficiency and combine this into a systematic overview. It builds on relevant literature and a case study on Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing performed within the REINVENT project.
The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster, comprising mainly oil refining, chemical production and power generation. In 2016, the port's industry accounted for 19% of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the cluster is heavily exposed to future decarbonisation policies, as most of its activities focus on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods, our article explores three pathways whereby the port's industry can maintain its strong position while significantly reducing its CO2 emissions and related risks by 2050. The pathways differ in terms of the EU's assumed climate change mitigation ambitions and the key technological choices made by the cluster's companies. The focus of the paper is on identifying key risks associated with each scenario and ways in which these could be mitigated.
The German Energiewende is a deliberate transformation of an established industrial economy towards a nearly CO2-free energy system accompanied by a phase out of nuclear energy. Its governance requires knowledge on how to steer the transition from the existing status quo to the target situation (transformation knowledge). The energy system is, however, a complex socio-technical system whose dynamics are influenced by behavioural and institutional aspects, which are badly represented by the dominant techno-economic scenario studies. In this paper, we therefore investigate and identify characteristics of model studies that make agent-based modelling supportive for the generation of transformation knowledge for the Energiewende. This is done by reflecting on the experiences gained from four different applications of agent-based models. In particular, we analyse whether the studies have improved our understanding of policies' impacts on the energy system, whether the knowledge derived is useful for practitioners, how valid understanding derived by the studies is, and whether the insights can be used beyond the initial case-studies. We conclude that agent-based modelling has a high potential to generate transformation knowledge, but that the design of projects in which the models are developed and used is of major importance to reap this potential. Well-informed and goal-oriented stakeholder involvement and a strong collaboration between data collection and model development are crucial.
The paper describes quantitative scenarios on a possible evolution of the EU petrochemical industry towards climate neutrality. This industry will be one of the remaining sectors in a climate neutral economy still handling hydrocarbon material to manufacture polymers. Concepts of a climate neutral chemical industry stress the need to consider the potential end-of-life emissions of polymers produced from fossil feedstock and draft the vision of using renewable electricity to produce hydrogen and to use renewable (hydro)carbon feedstock. The latter could be biomass, CO2 from the air or recycled feedstock from plastic waste streams.
The cost-optimization model used to develop the scenarios describes at which sites investments of industry in the production stock could take place in the future. Around 50 types of products, the related production processes and the respective sites have been collected in a database. The processes included cover the production chain from platform chemicals via intermediates to polymers. Pipelines allowing for efficient exchange of feedstock and platform chemicals between sites are taken into account as well. The model draws on this data to simulate capacity change at individual plants as well as plant utilization. Thus, a future European production network for petrochemicals with flows between the different sites and steps of the value chain can be sketched.
The scenarios described in this paper reveal how an electrification strategy could be implemented by European industry over time with minimized societal costs. Today's existing assets as well as geographical variance of energy supply and the development of demand for different plastic sorts are the major model drivers.
Finally, implications for the chemical industry, the energy system and national or regional governments are discussed.
Driving forces of changing environmental pressures from consumption in the European food system
(2020)
The paper provides an integrated assessment of environmental and socio-economic effects arising from final consumption of food products by European households. Direct and indirect effects accumulated along the global supply chain are assessed by applying environmentally extended input-output analysis (EE-IOA). EXIOBASE 3.4 database is used as a source of detailed information on environmental pressures and world input-output transactions of intermediate and final goods and services. An original methodology to produce detailed allocation matrices to link IO data with household expenditure data is presented and applied. The results show a relative decoupling between environmental pressures and consumption over time and shows that European food consumption generates relatively less environmental pressures outside Europe (due to imports) than average European consumption. A methodological framework is defined to analyze the main driving forces by means of a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The results of the SDA highlight that while technological developments and changes in the mix of consumed food products result in reductions in environmental pressures, this is offset by growth in consumption. The results highlight the importance of directing specific research and policy efforts towards food consumption to support the transition to a more sustainable food system in line with the objectives of the EU Farm to Fork Strategy.
The reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by energyintensive industries to a net zero level is a very ambitious and complex but still feasible challenge, as recent studies show for the EU level. "Industrial Transformation 2050" by Material Economics (2019) is of particular relevance, as it shows how GHG-neutrality can be achieved in Europe for the sectors chemicals (plastics and ammonia), steel and cement, based on three main decarbonisation strategies. The study determines the resulting total demands for renewable electricity, hydrogen and for the capture and storage of CO2 (CCS). However, it analyses neither the regional demand patterns that are essential for the required infrastructure nor the needed infrastructure itself.
Against this background the present paper determines the regional distribution of the resulting additional demands for electricity, hydrogen and CCS in Europe in the case that the two most energy and CCS intensive decarbonisation strategies of the study above will be realised for the existing industry structure. It explores the future infrastructure needs and identifies and qualitatively assesses different infrastructure solutions for the largest industrial cluster in Europe, i.e. the triangle between Antwerp, Rotterdam and Rhine-Ruhr. In addition, the two industrial regions of Southern France and Poland are also roughly examined.
The paper shows that the increase in demand resulting from a green transformation of industry will require substantial adaptation and expansion of existing infrastructures. These have not yet been the subject of infrastructure planning. In particular, the strong regional concentration of additional industrial demand in clusters (hot spots) must be taken into account. Due to their distance from the high-yield but remote renewable power generation potentials (sweet spots), these clusters further increase the infrastructural challenges. This is also true for the more dispersed cement production sites in relation to the remote CO2 storage facilities. The existing infrastructure plans should therefore be immediately expanded to include decarbonisation strategies of the industrial sector.
Industrial demand response can play an important part in balancing the intermittent production from a growing share of renewable energies in electricity markets. This paper analyses the role of aggregators - intermediaries between participants and power markets - in facilitating industrial demand response. Based on the results from semi-structured interviews with German demand response aggregators, as well as a wider stakeholder online survey, we examine the role of aggregators in overcoming barriers to industrial demand response. We find that a central role for aggregators is to raise awareness for the potentials of demand response, as well as to support implementation by engaging key actors in industrial companies. Moreover, we develop a taxonomy that helps analyse how the different functional roles of aggregators create economic value. We find that there is considerable heterogeneity in the kind of services that aggregators offer, many of which do create significant economic value. However, some of the functional roles that aggregators currently fill may become obsolete once market barriers to demand response are reduced or knowledge on demand response becomes more diffused.
Participatory modeling - the involvement of stakeholders in the modeling process - can support various objectives, such as stimulating learning processes or promoting mutual understanding of stakeholders. Participatory modeling approaches could therefore be useful for the governance of transitions, but a systematic account of potential application areas of participatory modeling methods in transition governance is still lacking. This article addresses this gap by providing a review of participatory modeling methods and linking them to phases and objectives of transition governance. We reviewed participatory modeling studies in transition research and related fields of social-ecological modeling, integrated assessment and environmental management. We find that participatory modeling methods are mostly used for participatory visioning and goal setting as well as for interactive strategy development. The review shows the potential for extending the application of participatory modeling methods to additional phases of transition governance and for the exchange of experiences between research fields.
In order to ensure security of supply in a future energy system with a high share of volatile electricity generation, flexibility technologies are needed. Industrial demand-side management ranks as one of the most efficient flexibility options. This paper analyses the effect of the integration of industrial demand-side management through the flexibilisation of aluminium electrolysis and other flexibilities of the electricity system and adjacent sectors. The additional flexibility options include electricity storage, heat storage in district heating networks, controlled charging of electric vehicles, and buffer storage in hydrogen electrolysis. The utilisation of the flexibilities is modelled in different settings with an increasing share of renewable energies, applying a dispatch model. This paper compares which contributions the different flexibilities can make to emission reduction, avoidance of curtailment, and reduction of fuel and CO2 costs, and which circumstances contribute to a decrease or increase of overall emissions with additional flexibilities. The analysis stresses the rising importance of flexibilities in an energy system based on increasing shares of renewable electricity generation, and shows that flexibilities are generally suited to reduce carbon emissions. It is presented that the relative contribution towards the reduction of curtailment and costs of flexibilisation of aluminium electrolysis are high, whereby the absolute effect is small compared to the other options due to the limited number of available processes.
This paper analyses and compares industry sector transformation strategies as envisioned in recent German, European and global deep decarbonisation scenarios.
The first part of the paper identifies and categorises ten key strategies for deep emission reductions in the industry sector. These ten key strategies are energy efficiency, direct electrification, use of climateneutral hydrogen and/or synthetic fuels, use of biomass, use of CCS, use of CCU, increases in material efficiency, circular economy, material substitution and end-use demand reductions. The second part of the paper presents a meta-analysis of selected scenarios, focusing on the question of which scenario relies to what extent on the respective mitigation strategies.
The key findings of the meta-analysis are discussed, with an emphasis on identifying those strategies that are commonly pursued in all or the vast majority of the scenarios and those strategies that are only pursued in a limited number of the scenarios. Possible reasons for differences in the choice of strategies are investigated.
The paper concludes by deriving key insights from the analysis, including identifying the main uncertainties that are still apparent with regard to the future steps necessary to achieve deep emission reductions in the industry sector and how future research can address these uncertainties.