Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
Der Ölpreis wird von zahlreichen Faktoren beeinflusst. Die OPEC spielt bei der Preisbildung derzeit nur eine geringe Rolle. Ein Peak Oil wird die Ölpreise stark beeinflussen und zahlreiche Ausweichdynamiken in Gang setzen, die in ihrer Struktur und Quantität bisher jedoch meist unverstanden sind. Ein ökonomischer Ansatz zu deren Bewertung greift aufgrund vorliegender nicht-ökonomischer Hemmnisse zu kurz. Eine Folge von Rohstoffverknappungen ist eine steigende Energieunsicherheit auf globaler Ebene. Daher ist ein grundsätzlicher Umbau der heutigen Versorgungsstrukturen geboten, um in Zukunft besser gegen strukturelle Unsicherheiten gerüstet zu sein.
The North African countries Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt have been and are currently experiencing rapid growth in energy demand. This development confronts their political leaders with the question of how to expand or diversify their countries' generation capacities. In this context, renewable energies and nuclear power constitute options that have rarely been exploited so far in the region. This article analyzes the drawbacks and benefits of both alternatives, with a special focus on import and export dynamics. When attempting to make the strategic decision between renewables and atomic power, North African regional specifics and circumstances have to be taken into account. Hence, in a first step, the article characterizes the energy systems of the North African countries and presents scenarios for their future development. In a second step, it scrutinizes the energy challenges these states face in terms of domestic concerns and foreign affairs. Finally, a case study of Algeria is used to demonstrate how renewable energies, but not nuclear power, are able to respond to North African energy challenges.
For the option of “carbon capture and storage”, an integrated assessment in the form of a life cycle analysis and a cost assessment combined with a systematic comparison with renewable energies regarding future conditions in the power plant market for the situation in Germany is done. The calculations along the whole process chain show that CCS technologies emit per kWh more than generally assumed in clean-coal concepts (total CO2 reduction by 72-90% and total greenhouse gas reduction by 65-79%) and considerable more if compared with renewable electricity. Nevertheless, CCS could lead to a significant absolute reduction of GHG-emissions within the electricity supply system. Furthermore, depending on the growth rates and the market development, renewables could develop faster and could be in the long term cheaper than CCS based plants. Especially, in Germany, CCS as a climate protection option is phasing a specific problem as a huge amount of fossil power plant has to be substituted in the next 15 years where CCS technologies might be not yet available. For a considerable contribution of CCS to climate protection, the energy structure in Germany requires the integration of capture ready plants into the current renewal programs. If CCS retrofit technologies could be applied at least from 2020, this would strongly decrease the expected CO2 emissions and would give a chance to reach the climate protection goal of minus 80% including the renewed fossil-fired power plants.