Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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Die atompolitische Wende der Bundesregierung hatte zahlreichen Spekulationen und Befürchtungen Raum gegeben. Es wurde gemutmaßt, dass Deutschland zum Nettostromimporteur werden könnte, sollten die Kraftwerke (wie im Sommer 2011 beschlossen) dauerhaft außer Betrieb bleiben. Darüber hinaus nahm man an, dass die in Deutschland entfallende Stromerzeugung durch Kohlekraftwerke oder durch Importe aus französischen oder tschechischen Atomkraftwerken ersetzt würde und dass Strompreise sowie CO2-Emissionen deutlich ansteigen würden. Inzwischen liegen vorläufige Energiebilanzen und Marktdaten für das Jahr 2011 vor, die viele dieser Befürchtungen widerlegen. Der hier vorgenommene Ausblick auf die mögliche Entwicklung in den kommenden Jahren zeigt zudem, dass die Bilanz von 2011 keine Momentaufnahme sein muss, sondern dass der gegenüber 2010 wegfallende Kernenergiestrom - bilanziell gesehen - voraussichtlich bereits ab 2013 allein durch eine erhöhte regenerative Stromerzeugung kompensiert werden kann.
Etude stratégique du mix energétique pour la production d'electricité en Tunisie : rapport final
(2012)
Purpose - Iran as an energy-rich country faces many challenges in the optimal utilization of its vast resources. High rates of population and economic growth, a generous subsidies program, and poor resource management have contributed to rapidly growing energy consumption and high energy intensity over the past decades. The continuing trend of rising energy consumption will bring about new challenges as it will shrink oil export revenues, restraining economic activities. This calls for a study to explore alternative scenarios for the utilization of energy resources in Iran. The purpose of this paper is to model demand for energy in Iran and develop two business-as-usual and efficiency scenarios for the period 2005-2030.
Design/methodology/approach - The authors use a techno-economic or end-use approach to model energy demand in Iran for different types of energy uses and energy carriers in all sectors of the economy and forecast it under two scenarios: business as usual (BAU) and efficiency.
Findings - Iran has a huge potential for energy savings. Specifically, under the efficiency scenario, Iran will be able to reduce its energy consumption 40 percent by 2030. The energy intensity can also be reduced by about 60 percent to a level lower than the world average today.
Originality/value - The paper presents a comprehensive study that models the Iranian energy demand in different sectors of the economy, using data at different aggregation levels and a techno-economic end-use approach to illuminate the future of energy demand under alternative scenarios.
The need for an "Energy Roadmap 2050" triggered a multitude of studies that were conducted between 2009 and 2011, which again contained a multitude of decarbonisation scenarios, which achieve the EU's long-term emission mitigation target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% until 2050 (relative to 1990 emissions). The variety of important analysis is difficult to compare and utilize for specific and timely policy decisions. Thus the Smart Energy for Europe Platform (SEFEP) has commissioned a comparative study of relevant energy scenario studies for Europe. The findings of this comparative study are summarized here briefly.
The final report of the research project "Power Sector Decarbonisation: Metastudy" contains the various reports prepared by Öko-Institut and Wuppertal Institute during the course of the SEFEP funded project. A key objective of the project was to make a contribution to the debates within the European Union (EU) and Member States on the EU's Energy Roadmap 2050 publication, which was released in December 2011. This objective was achieved by systematically analysing and comparing recently published scenarios on the European electricity sector commissioned by a range of different stakeholders (environmental NGOs, industry and government agencies).