Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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Energieszenarien können in der Diskussion zur Energiewende Orientierung bieten und Entscheidungen unterstützen. Fehlende Transparenz sowie die Vielzahl und Heterogenität der verfügbaren Studien erschweren es jedoch, diese angemessen zu interpretieren. Das vorliegende Diskussionspapier bietet Nutzern eine Hilfestellung und leistet einen Beitrag zur Entwicklung eines grundsätzlichen Analyse- und Interpretationsrahmens, der auch in anderen thematischen Bereichen angewendet werden kann.
Vom Inter- zum Intra-Wettbewerb : Stufen der Integration erneuerbarer Energien im Strombereich
(2014)
Deutschland ist auf dem Weg zu einem Stromsystem, welches sich zu 100 Prozent aus Erneuerbaren Energien speist. Verschiedene erneuerbare Erzeugungsoptionen stehen dabei zur Verfügung. Noch befinden diese sich in einem koexistenten Wettbewerb mit fossilen Energieträgern (Inter-Wettbewerb). Im vorliegenden Beitrag entwerfen die Autoren ein Marktdesign, welches einen fairen Wettbewerb der erneuerbaren Erzeugungsoptionen garantieren soll (Intra-Wettbewerb). Ihr Ausgangspunkt ist dabei das Gedankenexperiment, welches einen Zustand zugrunde legt, der sich nahe am Ende des anstehenden Transformationsprozesses mit einer Erzeugungsquote von 100 Prozent aus Erneuerbaren Energien befindet. Dabei analysieren sie auch die Kapazitäten und Interessen der Bundesländer beim Zustandekommen eines Intra-Wettbewerbs.
In der vorliegenden Studie steht die Forschungsfrage im Mittelpunkt, ob ein vollständig auf erneuerbaren Energien beruhendes Stromsystem mit hohen Importanteilen von rund 10 bis 20 % nach heutigem Stand des Wissens als technisch-ökologisch realisierbar angesehen werden kann. Als Grundlage für die Untersuchung wird in erster Linie auf eine Reihe von Szenariostudien zurückgegriffen, die ein weitgehend treibhausgasemissionsfreies, zu 90 bis 100 % auf regenerativer Erzeugung basierendes und von hohen Stromimportanteilen gekennzeichnetes Stromsystem mit dem Zeithorizont 2050 modellieren und beschreiben. Dabei werden analog zu Szenarien für Deutschland auch vorliegende Szenarien für Europa in den Blick genommen, die für den europäischen Kontinent wesentliche Nettostromimporte aus Nordafrika vorsehen.
Bei der Großen Transformation handelt es sich laut Wissenschaftlichen Beirat Globale Umweltveränderungen (WGBU) um einen ganzheitlichen Wandel des fossilen ökonomischen Systems in Richtung klimaverträglicher Nachhaltigkeit und höherer Lebensqualität. Schon heute lebt mehr als die Hälfte der Menschheit in Städten - in Deutschland sind es über 80 %. In der Transformationsforschung spielen daher Städte eine zentrale Rolle. In Bottrop finden derzeit zwei großangelegte ökologische Transformationsprozesse statt. Zum einen wird die Emscher im Norden der Stadt renaturiert. Der bisher als Abwasserkanal genutzte Fluss erstreckt sich über das gesamte Ruhrgebiet und wird in einer insgesamt 20 Jahre langen Umbauphase zu einem naturnahen Gewässer zurückgeführt. Zum anderem ist Bottrop Gewinner des Wettbewerbs InnovationCity Ruhr. Im Frühjahr 2010 rief der Initiativkreis Ruhr einen Wettbewerb aus, bei dem die Klimastadt der Zukunft gefunden werden sollte. Ziel von InnovationCity Ruhr ist es die CO2-Emmissionen in Bottrop bis 2020 zu halbieren und somit eine Vorbildfunktion zur klimafreundlichen Wandlung für das gesamte Ruhrgebiet einzunehmen. Die erfolgreiche Implementation solcher Transformationsprozesse ist laut WBGU von der Akzeptanz, Legitimation und Partizipation der Bevölkerung abhängig. Diese Forschungsarbeit zeigt mittels einer Methodentriangulation von Interviews mit acht Bottroper Bürgerinnen und Bürger sowie der Anwendung einer Collagenmethode, welche Einstellungen und Präferenzen die Bottroper Bevölkerung in Bezug zum urbanen Leben hat. Dabei steht die Frage im Mittelpunkt: Was bedeutet Lebensqualität für die Bottroper und wie lässt sich diese mit der Großen Transformation vereinbaren? Anschließend werden sowohl Anknüpfungspunkte als auch Interessenkonflikte zu den Transformationsprozessen Emscher-Umbau und InnovationCity Ruhr aufgedeckt. Diese Masterarbeit ist in Zusammenarbeit des Wuppertal Instituts mit der Universität Duisburg Essen im Studiengang "Urbane Kultur Gesellschaft und Raum" entstanden.
Sustainability policy in the early 2000s is based on and therefore influenced by scientific literature on "transition". The importance of this link has inspired the authors to explore the structure of cooperating authors and citation networks in the field. In order to understand "transition" literature, we compare it with an alternative term for change, "transformation", which is also used in the context of socio-technical shifts towards sustainability. We expose the different structures of these fields with an overview of keywords, key references, key authors, and the coherence between references and authors. By analysing co-author and citation networks, we find large differences in these groups of documents. The transition literature is characterised by a large network of directly and indirectly cooperating authors with clear clusters; transformation literature contains smaller author networks. Key transition authors are predominantly Dutch. They repeatedly write together and cite each other's work. The transition literature is tightly knit with high degrees of internal references and a clearly distinguishable core. Transformation literature has fewer connections between authors and articles. The connecting articles, each with many global citations, form its basis. This analysis can be used as a step to continue the debate on the role of transition and transformation literature in sustainability and renewable energy policy. The transformation literature teaches us that older streams of thought are still relevant and may be used as "glue" for linking change with respect to sustainable energy to wider developments. Rediscovering existing literature in new combinations may lead to promising new views on sustainable energy.
Eine zukünftige Herausforderung der Energiewende wird darin bestehen, zunehmende Stromnetzeinspeisungen von fluktuierenden erneuerbaren Energien (FEE) in das Energiesystem zu integrieren. Neben den Flexibilitäten im Stromsystem sollten dabei auch die Möglichkeiten des Wärmemarktes zur Stabilisierung des Strommarktes berücksichtigt werden. So können Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungs-Anlagen (KWK), Elektroheizer und Wärmepumpen als Verbindungstechnologien zwischen Strom- und Wärmemarkt abhängig vom FEE-Dargebot und damit auch den Preissignalen des Strommarktes zu- bzw. abgeschaltet werden. Dazu werden Wärmespeicher benötigt, da die Flexibilisierung nur möglich ist, wenn die Produktion von der Wärmenutzung entkoppelt werden kann. Eine besonders aussichtsreiche Kopplung von Strom- und Wärmemarkt ist im Bereich der Fernwärmesysteme möglich, da sich hier große Energiemengen in Fernwärmespeichern im Vergleich zu dezentralen Lösungen kostengünstiger und effizienter speichern lassen.
Techno-economic feasibility study of solar and wind based irrigation systems in Northern Colombia
(2014)
Water pumping systems powered by solar and wind energy are a clean, decentralized and economic alternative for the irrigation of crops. The intense droughts experienced in the last years in Northern Colombia due to particularly strong Nino Phenomena have reactivated the need of reliable water pumping irrigation systems in that region. This study aims to assess the techno economic feasibility of solar and wind based pumping irrigation system, taking as case study the Municipality of Piojo in the Atlantico department. In the first stage of the study the irrigation water requirements were determined by using the software CROPWAT based on two different crop patterns that represent existing feasible alternatives for small farmers of the region: i) a common crop pattern, which represent the current average distribution of crops for subsistence farming and ii) a fruit cash crop pattern that comprises crops for which well established markets in the region exist. Solar wind and diesel based pumping systems were sized based on the crop water demands for 1 ha. The unit irrigation costs of the three technologies, the two crop patterns and the three irrigation methods (surface, sprinkler and drip) were calculated and compared. The economical analysis was complemented with a cost-benefit analysis over 20 years. Our results show that both renewable energy based pumping systems (wind and solar) can cover the irrigation water demands of small farmers in the region. The economical analysis shows that windmills are the most cost effective solution followed by the solar pumping system. Diesel pumping system was the less cost effective, even though it does not comprise investment in water storage tank. The cost benefit analysis demonstrates that any irrigation system is financially unfeasible when providing water to a common crop pattern. In case of the fruit cash crop scenario the highest dividends were obtained by the wind pumping system and the lowest dividends by the diesel pumping system. The lowest payback period was obtained by the windmill after 7 years and could be even feasible after the fifth year if the surplus water would be used to irrigate larger areas. Dividends obtained in a fruit cash crop scenario with irrigation after 20 years were in the range of EUR 5200 and EUR 11200 higher than dividends obtained by the same crop pattern but without irrigation.
At current primary steel production levels, the iron and steel industry will fail to meet the 80% emission reduction target without introduction of breakthrough technologies (Wörtler et al., 2013: 19). The current research analyses the technical and economical long-term potential of innovative primary steel production technologies in Germany throughout 2100. Techno-economic models are used to simulate three innovative ore-based steelmaking routes verses the reference blast furnace route (BF-BOF). The innovative routes in focus are blast furnace with CCS (BF-CCS), hydrogen direct reduction (H-DR), and iron ore electrolysis (EW). Energy and mass flows for the production of one tonne of crude steel (CS) are combined with hypothetical price, cost, and revenue data to evaluate the production routes economically, technically, and environmentally. This is a purely theoretical analysis and hence further external factors that may influence practical implementation or profitability are not considered.
Different future developments are considered by using three scenarios, representing an ambitious, a moderate, and a conservative transformation of the German energy sector. In general, looking into the future bares various uncertainties which should be reflected in a suitable manner.
According to the present scenario analysis, chances are that with rising prices for coal and CO2 allowances BF-BOF and even BF-CCS become unprofitable by mid-century. With a high share of renewable energy sources and high prices for CO2 allowances, H-DR and EW become economically attractive in the second half of the current century, when BF-based routes are long unprofitable. Energy and raw material efficiency is significantly higher for H-DR and EW and furthermore, the 80% reduction target by 2050 can be achieved in the ambitious scenario. However, high investment costs and high dependency on electricity prices prohibit a profitable implementation before 2030–2040 without further subsidies. EW is the most energy and resource efficient production route. Since continuous electricity is needed for the continuous operation, the electricity costs are 20–40% higher than for H-DR (with high-capacity hydrogen storage units). Even though hydrogen production implies efficiency losses compared to the EW route, the decoupling of hydrogen production from continuous operation of the steel plant through hydrogen storage offers the opportunity to use cheap excess renewable electricity. This makes the H-DR economically and environmentally the most attractive route and provides a crucial contribution to stabilize the grid and to store excess energy in a 100% renewable energy system.
The EU has set itself ambitious targets with regards to a significant reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions and has presented roadmaps depicting an overall decarbonisation of its economy by the middle of the century. In this context European policymakers and stakeholders are currently discussing the targets and the level of ambition of the 2030 climate and energy policy framework. The Commission is expected to present its own vision for the further development of the energy and climate policy framework in its White Paper "For a 2030 climate and energy policy framework". At this decisive point in the political debate the Wuppertal Institute presents a brief working paper that analyses some of the analytical work - particularly the underlying energy and GHG emission scenarios - behind the Commission's proposals to be presented in the forthcoming White Paper.
Since in 1992 the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) has been held in Rio de Janeiro, efforts to achieve sustainable development appear to have made only insufficient progress, as the results of the 2012 follow-up conference show. One reason for this is that among the various paths to sustainability being discussed, the strategies enjoying greater support are those that continue to be committed to economic and material growth, this as opposed to those that question the growth paradigm. Among the latter are the sufficiency and subsistence approaches. The sufficiency approach delves into the causes and (supposed) boons of a continuous increase in material and immaterial goods. With the demand that individuals not always be forced to always want more, it points out a way to a structural transition in society. The subsistence approach, on the other hand, seeks to draft a path to greater autonomy and quality of life by strengthening regional, local or indi-vidual self-provisioning. To be in harmony with sustainability, it must be possible to freely choose the two ways of life; they must not be mandated by the authorities.
Aufgrund der Reform des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes soll die Förderhöhe für Strom aus Photovoltaik-Freiflächenanlagen nun wettbewerblich über Ausschreibungen ermittelt werden. Dafür muss eine entsprechende Rechtsverordnung geschaffen werden. Für die Eckpunkte eines solchen Ausschreibungsdesigns hat das Bundeswirtschaftsministerium eine öffentliche Konsultation in Gang gesetzt, zu der auch das Wuppertal Institut zusammen mit dem Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE und weiteren Unterstützern eine Stellungnahme abgegeben haben.
Ihre Empfehlung ist, die Ressourcen-/bzw. Landnutzung von PV-Freiflächenanlagen als wesentliches Kriterium in die Förderung einzubeziehen. Vor dem Hintergrund eines erhöhten Nutzungsdrucks auf den ländlichen Raum weisen sie darauf hin, dass ihr angestrebter Ausbau zu ökonomischen, ökologischen, politischen und gesellschaftlichen Konfliktkonstellationen führen könnte. Zugleich machen sie deutlich, dass es zur herkömmlichen Technologie eine Alternative, die Agrophotovoltaik-Freiflächentechnologie gibt, ein Anbausystem zur Produktion von landwirtschaftlichen Gütern unterhalb von PV-Modulen. Sie ermöglicht die simultane Erzeugung von PV-Strom und die Produktion von Nahrungsmitteln. Folgerichtig wird empfohlen, nicht die PV-Anlagen, sondern Freiflächen-Technologien zum Gegenstand der geplanten Pilotausschreibungen zu machen. Die Ausweitung herkömmlicher Anlagen sollte sich auf unterdurchschnittlich fruchtbare Ackerflächen beschränken.
The brochure summarises the project's objectives and methodological approach, its key findings as well as conclusions. Both case studies have shown that technological solutions for low carbon development should be embedded in a well-developed institutional framework to foster their deployment and implementation. Therefore, recommendations for Wuxi include examples of innovative and integrated technical projects for increasing energy and resource efficiency, combining them with recommendations for the development of institutional frameworks. One element of such a framework could be a local energy agency in Wuxi, which would offer support and expertise to potential investors in low carbon technologies. Also for the German pilot region, the brochure offers concrete recommendations how to facilitate low carbon planning within the region.
In the light of the tremendous challenges facing the energy systems of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a number of concepts, roadmaps and scenario studies have emerged, describing potential transformation pathways towards a more sustainable, renewable-based, energy supply future in the region. Our article uses the scientific approach of "transition research" to analyze the most pertinent publications and concepts in this field to identify the key drivers and barriers for the transformation of the regional energy systems. The analysis likewise includes an assessment of possible indicators and indexes that can be used to monitor the sustainability of the transformation process of MENA energy systems.
Die Wahrung der Systemsicherheit muss perspektivisch von konventionellen Kraftwerken auf regenerative Energien und Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsanlagen (KWK) verlagert werden. Diese sollen zukünftig Systemdienstleistungen übernehmen, um in zunehmendem Maße fluktuierende erneuerbare Energien (FEE) zu integrieren. Deutschland strebt an, im Jahr 2020 ein Viertel der elektrischen Energie aus KWK-Anlagen zu erzeugen. Damit werden diese Anlagen einen wesentlichen Teil der regelbaren Stromerzeugung ausmachen. Insbesondere die Erzeugung in dezentralen Blockheizkraftwerken (BHKW) wird zunehmen. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage, ob dezentrale Anlagen überhaupt nennenswert zur Systemstabilität beitragen können.
This paper draws upon an extensive transdisciplinary scenario development in the context of the stakeholder oriented preparation of the climate protection plan of the German federal state North Rhine-Westphalia, which is home to the most important heavy industry cluster in Europe. In that context we developed differentiated bottom up climate change mitigation strategies and scenarios for the major energy intensive industries aluminium, iron and steel, cement, lime, paper and steam cracker for olefin production together with representatives of industry as well as society.
The present study investigates and compares the public perception of CO2 offshore storage, CO2 onshore storage and CO2 transport via pipeline in Germany nationwide and in two coastal regions. For this purpose, three representative surveys were carried out and analyzed with the methods of descriptive statistics and ordinal regressions. The results of our descriptive statistical analyses show clear regional differences with regard to self-reported awareness, factual knowledge, risk perceptions and general attitudes towards CO2 offshore/onshore storage and CO2 transport via pipeline. With regard to the public perception of the two storage options - offshore and onshore - no major differences could be identified: both are hardly accepted by the German public. In comparison to CO2 offshore storage/CO2 onshore storage, the attitudes towards CO2 transport via pipeline were perceptibly more positive in all regions. Our regression analyses revealed that the perceptions of the personal and societal risks of CO2 transport via pipeline/CO2 offshore storage/CO2 onshore storage as well as the perceptions of the personal and societal benefits of CCS are the most important direct determinants of general attitudes towards CO2 transport via pipeline, CO2 offshore storage and CO2 onshore storage.
Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in India's power sector : an integrated assessment
(2014)
Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in India. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. However, each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract).
Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data since only rough figures concerning the theoretical capacity exist at present. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 13 and 111 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country's CO2 storage potential are applied, 75 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken by considering the country's effective storage potential, only a fraction may potentially be sequestered. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in India, a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS, an expected net maximum reduction rate of the power plant’s greenhouse gas emissions of 71-74%, an increase of most other environmental and social impacts, and a lack of governmental, industrial or societal CCS advocates.
Conclusion and practice implications: Several preconditions need to be fulfilled if CCS is to play a future role in reducing CO2 emissions in India, the most crucial one being to determine reliable storage capacity figures. In order to overcome these barriers, the industrialised world would need to make a stronger commitment in terms of CCS technology demonstration, cooperation and transfer to emerging economies like India. The integrated assessment might also be extended by a comparison with other low-carbon technology options to draw fully valid conclusions on the most suitable solution for a sustainable future energy supply in India.
The diversification of the national electricity generation mix has risen to the top of Tunisia's energy planning agenda. Presently, natural gas provides 96% of the primary energy for electric power generation, but declining domestic gas reserves and a soaring electricity demand are urgently calling for alternative fuel strategies. Currently discussed diversification options include the introduction of coal and nuclear power plants and/or an increased use of renewable energies. This article presents a methodology to assess different electricity system transformation strategies. By combining an electricity market model with a subsequent multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), we evaluate five power mix scenarios regarding power generation costs as well as non-economic dimensions such as energy security, environmental impact and social welfare effects. Based on criteria valuations obtained during consultations with Tunisian stakeholders, a final, best-ranking electricity scenario was selected, consisting of 15% wind, 15% solar and 70% natural gas-generated electricity in the national power mix by 2030.
The buildings sector accounts for more than 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the well-known economic viability of many energy-efficient renovation measures which offer great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting climate protection targets, there is a relatively low level of implementation. We performed a citation network analysis in order to identify papers at the research front and intellectual base on energy-efficient renovation in four areas: technical options, understanding decisions, incentive instruments, and models and simulation. The literature was reviewed in order to understand what is needed to sufficiently increase the number of domestic energy-efficient renovations and to identify potential research gaps. Our findings show that the literature on energy-efficient renovation gained considerable momentum in the last decade, but lacks a deep understanding of the uncertainties surrounding economic aspects and non-economic factors driving renovation decisions of homeowners. The analysis indicates that the (socio-economic) energy saving potential and profitability of energy-efficient renovation measures is lower than generally expected. It is suggested that this can be accounted for by the failure to understand and consider the underpinning influences of energy-consuming behaviour in calculations. Homeowners׳ decisions to renovate are shaped by an alliance of economic and non-economic goals. Therefore, existing incentives, typically targeting the economic viability of measures, have brought little success. A deeper understanding of the decisions of homeowners is needed and we suggest that a simulation model which maps the decision-making processes of homeowners may result in refining existing instruments or developing new innovative mechanisms to tackle the situation.
The results presented in this article illustrate how the local public was informed on specific Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects by regional newspapers in Germany. The analyzed articles were published in four daily newspapers within the German regions where four CO2 onshore storage projects took place or have been planned. The articles were published between 2007 and 2011. In total, 1,115 newspaper articles about the four CO2 onshore storage projects were gathered and analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results showed that the regional media coverage of CCS projects in Germany reached peaks in 2009 and 2010. The main topics changed within the media coverage and it is worth mentioning to what extent the media coverage of CCS disregarded topics with regard to economic, technical, ecological or scientific aspects on CCS. The overall evaluation of CCS within the articles is negative. While commercial CCS projects received more negative evaluation across newspaper articles; opinions about the research and industry project Ketzin were more neutral.