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This report examines the key transformation challenges and research capacity needs in four European industrial regions: the Basque Country, Rhine-Ruhr Area, the Port of Rotterdam, and Silesia. The study employed a mixed methods approach, including desk research and stakeholder workshops utilising the Three Horizons facilitation method. In three regions, workshops involving 8-18 participants representing diverse stakeholder groups were held. Due to prior workshop saturation, the Port of Rotterdam study opted for a series of interviews, drawing insights from well-documented previous workshops.
A key finding across all regions is the heightened perception of risk and uncertainty stemming from recent global events. This uncertainty affects various dimensions, including technology choices, geopolitical stability, resource availability, and political landscapes, exacerbating an investment bottleneck as industries face reinvestment decisions against a backdrop of strained public finances and volatile interest rates. This uncertainty is compounded by the lack of a clear business case for green materials despite the anticipated decline in the viability of traditional, emission-intensive materials within the EU. While interest in green materials exists, uncertainties around certification, bulk availability, and production costs make securing financing for green production facilities challenging.
Der hier vorgelegte Bericht stellt Ergebnisse des Forschungsmoduls FM 3A "Nachhaltige (Kreislauf)-Wirtschaft" im Projekt "Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie NRW: Vertiefungsanalysen zur Umsetzung aus wissenschaftlicher Sicht" dar. Ziel des gesamten Forschungsmoduls war es zu untersuchen, wie ein Leitbild Nachhaltige Kreislaufwirtschaft vor dem Hintergrund der bestehenden Wirtschaftsstruktur in NRW und den Bestrebungen der EU zur Umsetzung einer Circular Economy entwickelt werden könnte, welcher Aktivitäten es bedarf und welche Hemmnisse zu überwinden sind. Das im Rahmen des FM 3A in 2023 entwickelte Diskussionspapier "Kreislaufwirtschaft in NRW - Überblick über zentrale EU-Maßnahmen und ihre Relevanz für NRW" diente dabei unter anderem als Vorarbeit für dieses Papier. Auf dieser Basis wurde die nachfolgende Untersuchung von (digitalen) Technologiebereichen, die für die Wirtschaftsentwicklung NRWs als relevant diskutiert werden, vereinbart, um Erkenntnisse hinsichtlich ihres Beitrages zu einer grünen Transformation NRWs und der Kreislaufwirtschaft zu gewinnen und notwendige Innovationsbedarfe abzuleiten.
Es wurden für insgesamt elf Technologiebereiche sog. Factsheets entwickelt, die einen schnellen Überblick über die aus wissenschaftlicher Sicht bestehenden Merkmale, den Stand der Technik, die Bezüge zu den Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) und Kurzeinschätzungen zum Nachhaltigkeitspotenzial geben.
Mitte Oktober 2024 veröffentlichten das Wuppertal Institut und der Club of Rome ihr Buch "Earth for All Deutschland - Aufbruch in eine Zukunft für Alle". Darin präsentieren sie Vorschläge, wie Umweltkrisen überwunden und gleichzeitig Demokratie und Wohlstand gesichert werden können. Denn: Die Herausforderungen sollten nicht isoliert betrachtet werden, sondern die dafür notwendigen Lösungsbausteine können sich positiv ergänzen und gegenseitig verstärken. Im Buch beleuchten die Autor*innen sechs ineinandergreifende Wenden, die für einen gesellschaftlichen Wandel am ausschlaggebendsten sein werden: die Überwindung von Armut, den Abbau von Ungleichheit, einen anderen Umgang mit Ressourcen, die Förderung von Empowerment, eine nachhaltige Ernährung und das Vorantreiben der Energiewende.
Mit diesem Wuppertal Paper legt Peter Hennicke, Mitglied des Club of Rome und Senior Advisor am Wuppertal Institut, einen Deep Dive speziell zur Energiewende vor. Darin betont er besonders die notwendige Kombination der drei Säulen Effizienz, Konsistenz und Suffizienz, die für eine nachhaltige Klima- und Energiepolitik essentiell sind.
Hennicke umreißt dazu zunächst die kontroverse Geschichte der deutschen Energiewende seit den 1980er Jahren. Auf dieser Basis widmet er sich aktuellen und zu erwartenden Interessenkonflikten sowie bestehenden Pfadabhängigkeiten - etwa der Abhängigkeit des Verkehrssektors von fossilen Energien - und skizziert Politikmaßnahmen, mit denen sich diese auflösen lassen. Demgegenüber stellt er ein Szenario des "Weiter so", in dem die dringend benötigte sozial-ökologische Transformation nicht entschlossen genug vorangetrieben wird, und beschreibt die absehbar gravierenden Folgen für Wirtschaft, Umwelt und Gesellschaft. Anschließend geht Hennicke auf die Finanzierbarkeit und die gesellschaftliche Umsetzbarkeit der gleichzeitigen Durchführung aller sechs Kehrtwenden ein und erläutert, was die Wissenschaft tun kann, um die Politik dabei zu unterstützen und ihr die dafür notwendige breite Wissensbasis zur Verfügung zu stellen.
Residential buildings were the source of 11.6 % of Germany's greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, emitting around 78 million tonnes of CO2e, mostly due to inefficient heating and inadequate energy efficiency. This needs to be reduced to near zero by 2045. This will involve deep energy performance renovation of some 23 million dwellings, which is expensive and seldom pays back through energy cost savings. Around 43 % of all rental dwellings, almost 10 million, are owned by small private landlords, most of whom show little enthusiasm for deep energy performance investment. Instead, they tend to save small amounts and spend these on piecemeal renovations, while avoiding debt. This study explores the potential of a novel savings and loan scheme that would better accord with their saving capacity, be profitable for banks, and fund large, one-off deep energy performance upgrades. It rests on the fact that the long-term, committed savings of landlords could act as M1 collateral for banks to create large amounts of new M2 money by issuing loans, from which they make reasonable profits. This would enable banks to offer low-interest loans to small private landlords who commit to such savings. These landlords would continue to commit monthly amounts, but these would be savings for only the first few years, then loan repayments. With the savings and loan scheme, we are contributing to the debate on new and creative ways to incentivize specific target groups to accelerate the decarbonization of the building stock.
The transport sector is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. Rapid decarbonization of transport requires fuel switching and energy savings through modal shift and demand reduction - which are the aims of transport-sufficiency policy. We analyze passenger transport-policy instruments collected in the European Sufficiency Policy Database. Applying the concept of impact chains, we examine the ways in which proposed policy instruments function from cause/policy stimulus to effect/impact, with a focus on the factors relevant to the feasibility of policy implementation in Germany. This allows us to compare implementation feasibility by policy target and by instrument type. Based on our analysis of supporting factors, barriers, and risks, we find that policy instruments with many supporting factors also tend to have many barriers and risks. This is often the case with broad instruments that have diverse relevant factors. We observe that the policy targets "promotion of active modes" and "reduction of motorized individual transport" have the fewest risks because they tend to be less intensive in cost, material, and labor. Feasibility also varies between instrument types, with regulatory instruments unexpectedly showing the fewest risks and a similar number of barriers as economic instruments and as many supporting factors as fiscal instruments. This analysis enhances the understanding of which policies are easier to implement and how feasibility is interconnected with other instruments.
Residential buildings were the source of 11.6 % of Germany's greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, emitting around 78 million tonnes of CO2e, mostly due to inefficient heating and inadequate energy efficiency. This needs to be reduced to near zero by 2045. This will involve deep energy performance renovation of some 23 million dwellings, which is expensive and seldom pays back through energy cost savings. Around 43 % of all rental dwellings, almost 10 million, are owned by small private landlords, most of whom show little enthusiasm for deep energy performance investment. Instead, they tend to save small amounts and spend these on piecemeal renovations, while avoiding debt. This study explores the potential of a novel savings and loan scheme that would better accord with their saving capacity, be profitable for banks, and fund large, one-off deep energy performance upgrades. It rests on the fact that the long-term, committed savings of landlords could act as M1 collateral for banks to create large amounts of new M2 money by issuing loans, from which they make reasonable profits. This would enable banks to offer low-interest loans to small private landlords who commit to such savings. These landlords would continue to commit monthly amounts, but these would be savings for only the first few years, then loan repayments. With the savings and loan scheme, we are contributing to the debate on new and creative ways to incentivize specific target groups to accelerate the decarbonization of the building stock.