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International consensus is growing that a transition towards a low carbon society (LCS) is needed over the next 40 years. The G8, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, as well as the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have concluded that states should prepare their own Low-emission Plans or Low-emission Development Plans and such plans are in development in an increasing number of countries.
An analysis of recent long-term low emission scenarios for Germany shows that all scenarios rely heavily on a massive scale up of energy efficiency improvements based on past trends. However, in spite of the high potential that scenario developers assign to this strategy, huge uncertainty still exists in respect of where the efficiency potentials really lie, how and if they can be achieved and how much their successful implementation depends on more fundamental changes towards a more sustainable society (e.g. behavioural changes).
In order to come to a better understanding of this issue we specifically examine the potential for energy efficiency in relation to particular demand sectors. Our comparative analysis shows that despite general agreement about the high importance of energy efficiency (EE), the perception on where and how to achieve it differ between the analysed scenarios. It also shows that the close nexus between energy efficiency and non-technical behavioural aspects is still little understood. This leads us to the conclusion that in order to support energy policy decisions more research should be done on energy efficiency potential. A better understanding of its potential would help energy efficiency to fulfil its role in the transition towards a LCS.
Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants are one of several renewable energy technologies with significant potential to meet a part of future energy demand. An integrated technology assessment shows that CSP plants could play a promising role in Africa and Europe, helping to reach ambitious climate protection goals. Based on the analysis of driving forces and barriers, at first three future envisaged technology scenarios are developed. Depending on the underlying assumptions, an installed capacity of 120 GWel, 405 GWel or even 1,000 GWel could be reached globally in 2050. In the latter case, CSP would then meet 13–15% of global electricity demand. Depending on these scenarios, cost reduction curves for North Africa and Europe are derived. The cost assessment conducted for two virtual sites in Algeria and in Spain shows a long-term reduction of electricity generating costs to figures between 4 and 6 ct/kWhel in 2050. The paper concludes with an ecological analysis based on life cycle assessment. Although the greenhouse gas emissions of current (solar only operated) CSP systems show a good performance (31 g CO2-equivalents/kWhel) compared with advanced fossil-fired systems (130–900 CO2-eq./kWhel), they could further be reduced to 18 g CO2-eq./kWhel in 2050, including transmission from North Africa to Europe.
The potential of natural gas as a bridging technology in low-emission road transportation in Germany
(2011)
The green new deal and ecological industry policy : greening of manufacturing and energy generation
(2011)