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Renewable energy targets in the European Union (EU) have raised the demand for timber and are expected to increase dependence on imports. However, EU timber consumption levels are already disproportionally high compared to the rest of the world. The question is, how much timber is available for the EU to sustainably harvest and import, in particular considering sustainable forest management practices, a safe operating space for land-system change, and the global distribution of "common good" resources. This article approaches this question from a supply angle to develop a reference value range for the current as well as future sustainable supply of timber at the EU-27 and global levels. For current supply estimates, national-level data on forest area available for wood supply, productivity in that area, as well as the rate available for harvest were collected and aggregated into three potential supply scenarios. For future supply estimates, a safe operating space scenario halting land use change, a sensitivity analysis, and a literature review were performed. To provide both a comparison of global versus EU sustainable supply capacities and to develop a benchmark toward evaluating and comparing levels of consumption to sustainable supply capacities, per capita calculations were made. Results revealed that the per capita sustainable supply potential of EU forests is estimated to be around three times higher than the global average in 2050. Whether a global or EU reference value is more appropriate for EU policy orientation, considering both strengthened economic and cultural ties to the forest in forest-rich countries as well as the need to prevent problem shifting associated with exporting land demands abroad, is discussed. Further research is needed to strengthen and harmonize data, improve methods for modeling future scenarios and incorporate interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder perspectives toward the development of robust and politically relevant reference values for sustainable consumption levels.
Ein sorgsamer Umgang mit natürlichen Ressourcen gehört zu den Kernthemen von Industrial Ecology. Mit der jeweiligen Betrachtungsebene, vom Unternehmen bis zur globalen Ebene, wechseln die Herausforderungen, Methoden und Lösungsansätze. Gibt es auch Indikatoren, die skalenübergreifend angewandt werden können?
A policy framework for sustainable resource management (SRM) is required both to guarantee the materials and energy supply of the EU economy and safeguard the natural resource basis in the future. Goals and strategies for sustaining the metabolism of the economy are described. Data are presented on the material throughput and physical growth of the EU's economy, on total material requirements (TMR), its composition, the decoupling from economic growth, and the increased shift to other regions. A first future target Material Flow Balance (t- MFB) of the EU is outlined. Detailed data reveal the "top ten" resource flows. Policy design for SRM should aim at an integrated and balanced approach along the material flow, comprising resource extraction, the product cycle and final waste disposal. Strategies and potential instruments to manage fossil fuels, metals and industrial minerals, construction minerals and excavation are discussed. Possible priorities and examples are given for target setting, focusing on limited expansion of built-up area, reduced use of non-renewables, increased resource productivity, and shift to sustainable cultivation of biomass.
The paper reviews the current knowledge on the use of biomass for non-food purposes, critically discusses its environmental sustainability implications, and describes the needs for further research, thus enabling a more balanced policy approach. The life-cylce wide impacts of the use of biomass for energy and material purposes derived from either direct crop harvest or residuals indicate that biomass based substitutes have a different, not always superior environmental performance than comparable fossil based products. Cascading use, i.e. when biomass is used for material products first and the energy content is recovered from the end-of-life products, tends to provide a higher environmental benefit than primary use as fuel. Due to limited global land resources, non-food biomass may only substitute for a certain share of non-renewables. If the demand for non-food biomass, especially fuel crops and its derivates, continues to grow this will inevitably lead to an expansion of global arable land at the expense of natural ecosystems such as savannas and tropical rain forests. Whereas the current aspirations and incentives to increase the use of non-food biomass are intended to counteract climate change and environmental degradation, they are thus bound to a high risk of problem shifting and may even lead to a global deterioration of the environment. Although the "balanced approach" of the European Union's biomass strategy may be deemed a good principle, the concrete targets and implementation measures in the Union and countries like Germany should be revisited. Likewise, countries like Brazil and Indonesia may revisit their strategies to use their natural resources for export or domestic purposes. Further research is needed to optimize the use of biomass within and between regions.
This article presents the accounts of China's Total Material Requirement (TMR) during 1995–2008, which were compiled under the guidelines of Eurostat (2009) and with the Hidden Flow (HF) coefficients developed by the Wuppertal Institute. Subsequently, comparisons with previous studies are conducted. Using decomposition, we finally examine the influential factors that have changed the TMR of China. The main findings are the following: (1) During 1995–2008 China's TMR increased from 32.7 Gt to 57.0 Gt. Domestic extraction dominated China’s TMR, but a continuous decrease of its shares can be observed. In terms of material types, excavation constituted the biggest component of China's TMR, and a shift from biomass to metallic minerals is apparent; (2) Compared with two previous studies on China's TMR, the amounts of TMR in this study are similar to the others, whereas the amounts of the used part of TMR (Direct Material Input, DMI) are quite different as a result of following different guidelines; (3) Compared with developed countries, China's TMR per capita was much lower, but a continuous increase of this indicator can be observed; (4) Factors of Affluence (A) and Material Intensity (T), respectively, contributed the most to the increase and decrease of TMR, but the overall decrease effect is limited.
Global trade is increasingly being challenged by observations of growing burden shifting, in particular of environmental problems. This paper presents the first worldwide calculations of shifted burden based on material flow indicators, in particular direct and indirect physical trade balances. This study covers the period between 1962 and 2005 and includes between 82 and 173 countries per year. The results show that indirect trade flow volumes have increased to around 41 billion tonnes in 2005. The traded resources with the highest share of associated indirect flows are iron, hard coal, copper, tin and increasingly palm oil. Regarding the burden balance between regions, Europe is the biggest shifter whereas Australia and Latin America are the largest takers of environmental burden due to resource extraction. To evaluate the findings from a global perspective, the results are analysed in terms of resource flow induced environmental pressure related to a country's land area in terms of total and per capita area. Resource endowment and population density seem to be more relevant in determining the physical trade balance, including indirect flows, than income level.
The physical dimension of international trade. Part 1: Direct global flows between 1962 and 2005
(2010)
The physical dimension of international trade is attaining increased importance. This article describes a method to calculate complete physical trade flows for all countries which report their trade to the UN. The method is based on the UN Comtrade database and it was used to calculate world-wide physical trade flows for all reporting countries in nine selected years between 1962 and 2005. The results show increasing global trade with global direct material trade flows reaching about 10 billion tonnes in 2005, corresponding to a physical trade volume of about 20 billion tonnes (adding both total imports and total exports). The share from European countries is declining, mainly in favour of Asian countries. The dominant traded commodity in physical units was fossil fuels, mainly oil. Physical trade balances were used to identify the dominant resource suppliers and demanders. Australia was the principal resource supplier over the period with a diverse material export structure. It was followed by mainly oil-exporting countries with varying volumes. As regards to regions, Latin America, south-east Asian islands and central Asia were big resource exporters, mostly with increasing absolute amounts of net exports. The largest net importers were Japan, the United States and single European countries. Emerging countries like the "Asian Tigers" with major industrial productive sectors are growing net importers, some of them to an even higher degree than European countries. Altogether, with the major exception of Australia and Canada, industrialized countries are net importers and developing countries and transition countries are net exporters, but there are important differences within these groups.
The bioeconomy is gaining growing attention as a perceived win-win strategy for environment and economy in the EU. However, the EU already has a disproportionately high global cropland footprint compared to the world average, and uses more cropland than domestically available to supply its demand for agricultural products. There is a risk that uncontrolled growth of the bioeconomy will increase land use pressures abroad. For that reason, a monitoring system is needed to account for the global land use of European consumption. The aim of this paper is to take a closer look at the tools needed to monitor global cropland footprints, as well as the targets needed to benchmark development. This paper reviews recent developments in land footprint accounting approaches and applies the method of global land use accounting to calculate the global cropland footprint of the EU-27 for the years between 2000 and 2011. It finds a slight decrease in per capita cropland footprints over the past decade (of around 1% annually, reaching 0.29 ha/cap in 2011) and advocates promoting a further decrease in per capita cropland requirements (of around 2% annually) to reach global land use targets for keeping consumption within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries by 2030. It argues that strategic land reduction targets may still go hand in hand with the growth of a smart, innovative and sustainable bioeconomy by reinforcing the need for policies that support greater efficiency across the life-cycle and reduce wasteful and excessive consumption practices. Recommendations for further improving land footprint accounting are given.
Im Auftrag des Bundesforschungsministeriums hat das Wuppertal Institut eine Studie zur systemischen Betrachtung und Modellierung der Bioökonomie erstellt. Sie zeigt Wege auf, die komplexen sozio-ökonomischen Zusammenhänge und Umweltauswirkungen der Bioökonomie zu erfassen und soll als Grundlage für den Aufbau eines kontinuierlichen Monitorings dienen. Die Autor(inn)en erfassten Indikatoren und Modellierungsmethoden mit Bezug zur Bioökonomie und weisen auf bestehende Lücken hin: Diese finden sich vor allem bei der Erfassung neuer technologiegetriebener Sektoren, der systemischen Betrachtung eines nachhaltigen Konsums und bei der Modellierung der Zusammenhänge zwischen Innovationen, Wirtschaftswachstum und Ressourcenverbrauch (insbesondere die Landnutzung).
Zur Umsetzung eines systemischen Monitorings empfiehlt die Studie das folgende Vorgehen: Unter Zuhilfenahme des DPSIR-Konzeptes (Analyse von Wirkungsbeziehungen nach Driving forces, Pressures, States, Impacts und Responses) sollten Schlüsselindikatoren und Nachhaltigkeitsziele in einem Indikatoren-"Dashboard" zusammengeführt werden. Benötigt wird zudem ein Werkzeugkasten von Methoden, der vor allem integrierte Analyse- und Bewertungsmodelle sowie ein systemisch konzipiertes Metamodell umfasst.
Objective of this study is to support the development of a Thematic Strategy for Sustainable Use and Management of Resources through the provision of background information, in particular "an estimate of materials and waste streams in the Community, including imports and exports" (Article 8 a 6th EAP) using the method of material flow accounting. It further presents first ideas on how the resource use pattern of the EU can be assessed with regards to priority setting for possible policy measures.
By referring to the concept of Industrial Metabolism, resources are defined in a broad sense, embracing the source and sink function of the natural environment, i.e. the provision of raw materials and land, and the absorption of residual materials (waste and emissions). Environmental impacts are associated not only with the extraction, harvesting and catching of raw materials but also with the subsequent production, use and disposal of products and goods. It is the total of environmental impacts associated with the entire life cycle of raw materials which has to be considered.
Three generic "management rules" for the sustainable use and management of renewable and non-renewable natural resources are presented and discussed which have been formulated by several political institutions based on scientific literature:
1. The use of renewable resources should not exceed their renewal and/or regeneration rates.
2. The use of non-renewable resources should not exceed the rate at which substitutes are developed (should be limited to levels at which they can either be replaced by physically or functionally equivalent renewable resources or at which consumption can be offset by increasing the productivity of renewable or non-renewable resources).
3. Outputs of substances to the environment (pollution) should not exceed the assimilative capacity of environmental media ("absorption capacities").
The Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy and the UNEP/Wuppertal Institute Collaborating Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP) set out to analyse Japanese dematerialisation and resource efficiency strategies within the 3R scope and searched for options of enhancing resource effi ciency strategies, commissioned by the German Federal Environment Agency. A further task of the project was to initiate a policy dialogue including stakeholders, academia, politics and Japanese and European environmental experts. The following paper summarises findings from the analyses, the results of the policy dialogues (Experts Workshop, 6 June 2007 and International Conference, 6 November 2007) and draws conclusions for a potential Japanese-European cooperation on the resource efficiency issue.
Die Bedeutung von Urban Mining nimmt zu, da das Wachstum der Technosphäre, insbesondere des Baubestandes abnimmt. In den kommenden Jahrzehnten wird in Deutschland regional differenziert ein Gleichgewicht zwischen Zu- und Rückbau erreicht werden. Dann wird ein erheblicher Teil des Materialbedarfs aus Recycling gedeckt werden können. Erste Kommunen wie die Stadt Zürich praktizieren ein integriertes Bestands- und Ressourcenmanagement. Auf nationaler Ebene laufen Untersuchungen zur Dynamik des Materiallagers. Die Entwicklung eines Informationssystems Urban Mining bedarf der Kooperation aller Beteiligten.
Many countries have started to develop policy programs for the sustainable use of natural resources. Indicators and targets can cover both a territorial and a life-cycle-wide global perspective. This article focuses on how a safe operating space for global material resource use can be outlined based on existing economy-wide material flow indicators. It reflects on issues such as scale and systems perspective, as the choice of indicators determines the target "valves" of the socio-industrial metabolism. It considers environmental pressures and social aspects of safe and fair resource use. Existing proposals for resource consumption targets are reviewed, partially revisited, and taken as a basis to outline potential target values for a safe operating space for the extraction and use of minerals and biomass by final consumption. A potential sustainability corridor is derived with the Total Material Consumption of abiotic resources ranging from 6 to 12 t/person, the Total Material Consumption of biotic resources not exceeding 2 t/person, and the Raw Material Consumption of used biotic and abiotic materials ranging from 3 to 6 t/person until 2050. For policy, a "10-2-5 target triplet" can provide orientation, when the three indicators are assigned values of 10, 2, and 5 t/person, respectively.
The paper reflects the hypothesis that those technological and institutional innovations survive which extend the safe operating range (SOR) of the Humans-Technologies-Institutions (HTI) system (e.g. companies, cities, regions and countries). The multidimensional SOR of a country comprises in particular safe livelihood, quality of life, security, monetary stability, supply security and quality of the environment. A "mechanism of progress" is described involving the search for higher safety and independence of constraints. With innovation and learning in a key role, the mechanism leads to a relative decoupling of resource use and economic value added and a growing share of knowledge generation in the economy. Competition of HTI systems for scarce resources may lead to independence strategies such as enhanced resource efficiency. It may also lead to cooperation of competing HTI systems facilitated by new institutions thus forming an HTI system at higher level of complexity. While the consortium could coordinate their resource consumption within the boundaries of safe operating space, the partner HTI systems would further expand their SOR. Data is provided that net resource importing countries have developed higher material productivity thus increasing their independence from resource supply, and countries with such capability have gained higher innovation capacity.