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Optimization and simulation models are fit to work on a multitude of technical, economic, and techno-economic questions. However, they are by now not able to satisfactorily include societal aspects like acceptance, spatial implications and legal frameworks. In order to advance scope and explanatory power of simulation models, collaboration in interdisciplinary research teams is needed. Yet the exchange in such teams and its coordination can prove challenging. Furthermore, disciplinary approaches and methods for simulation and optimization might not be familiar to all participants.
To this end, a new conceptual model is introduced. The conceptual model employs few basic elements and concepts for describing and explaining arbitrary societal and technical relationships. Most notably, the conceptual model is general in its design, so contributions to the problem formulation and design components can be made by all team members regardless of their discipline. The procedure is based on common agent-based concepts without using their terminology. Consequently, an exchange among all team members becomes possible without them necessarily being proficient in agent-based modeling. A reduced presentation of workshop results exemplifies the use of novel elements for deriving an emergent agent-based simulation.
Actor and network analysis
(2017)
Africa and in particular African Least Developed Countries have to a large extent been neglected by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This article reviews the mechanism's performance in the region and highlights current developments. The analysis is based on a quantitative breakdown of data provided by the United Nations Environment Programme and Technical University of Denmark (UNEP/DTU) CDM Pipeline and was complemented by interviews with selected investors. The findings indicate that despite the various support measures for underrepresented regions, the overall share of African CDM activities continues to be low. The significant rise in the share of Programmes of Activities of recent years cannot make up for the continuing low numbers of African stand-alone projects. Further, the collapse of the compliance market has proved fatal in terms of timing: ongoing efforts to support the development of a genuine African carbon market were suffocated by the lack of demand for Certified Emission Reductions at a moment when capacity building had started to bear fruit. Consequently, instead of being a mitigation tool with significant scale, the future role of the CDM in Africa might be limited to the voluntary market, while at the same time serving as a tool to foster sustainable development, with mitigation benefits.
Analysing the impact of walking and cycling on urban road performance : a conceptual framework
(2017)
Assessing global resource use : a systems approach to resource efficiency and pollution reduction
(2017)
The growing demand for wood to meet EU renewable energy targets has increasingly come under scrutiny for potentially increasing EU import dependence and inducing land use change abroad, with associated impacts on the climate and biodiversity. This article builds on research accounting for levels of primary timber consumption - e.g., toward forest footprints - and developing reference values for benchmarking sustainability - e.g., toward land use targets - in order to improve systemic monitoring of timber and forest use. Specifically, it looks at future trends to assess how current EU policy may impact forests at an EU and global scale. Future demand scenarios are based on projections derived and adapted from the literature to depict developments under different scenario assumptions. Results reveal that by 2030, EU consumption levels on a per capita basis are estimated to be increasingly disproportionate compared to the rest of the world. EU consumption scenarios based on meeting around a 40% share of the EU renewable energy targets with timber would overshoot both the EU and global reference value range for sustainable supply capacities in 2030. Overall, findings support literature pointing to an increased risk of problem shifting relating to both how much and where timber needed for meeting renewable energy targets is sourced. It is argued that a sustainable level of timber consumption should be characterized by balance between supply (what the forest can provide on a sustainable basis) and demand (how much is used on a per capita basis, considering the concept of fair shares). To this end, future research should close data gaps, increase methodological robustness and address the socio-political legitimacy of the safe operating space concept towards targets in the future. A re-use of timber within the economy should be supported to increase supply options.
Simulation modeling is useful to understand the mechanisms of the diffusion of innovations, which can be used for forecasting the future of innovations. This study aims to make the identification of such mechanisms less costly in time and labor. We present an approach that automates the generation of diffusion models by: (1) preprocessing of empirical data on the diffusion of a specific innovation, taken out by the user; (2) testing variations of agent-based models for their capability of explaining the data; (3) assessing interventions for their potential to influence the spreading of the innovation. We present a working software implementation of this procedure and apply it to the diffusion of water-saving showerheads. The presented procedure successfully generated simulation models that explained diffusion data. This progresses agent-based modeling methodologically by enabling detailed modeling at relative simplicity for users. This widens the circle of persons that can use simulation to shape innovation.
In the face of growing popularity of eco-feedback innovations, recent studies draw attention to the relevance of the human factor for a more effective design of eco-feedback. This paper explores these challenges more deeply by employing a mixed methods approach. We provide in-situ insights from a Living Lab experiment on the effect of smart home systems and traffic light feedback on heating energy consumption in private households. Our results from an interrupted time series analysis of logged data on indoor room temperature, CO2 concentration and consumption of natural gas show that the interventions do not affect heating as expected, neither for automating behaviour via high-tech smart home systems nor via low-tech traffic light feedback. Smart home systems do not promise a significant reduction of heating energy consumption and a traffic light feedback on indoor air quality does not lead to a reaction of indoor CO2 concentrations, but may reduce heating energy consumption. Qualitative interviews on heating practices of participants suggests that comfort temperatures, lack of competences and inert heating systems do override expected effects of the feedback interventions. We propose that high-tech smart home systems should carefully consider the handling competences of users. Low-tech feedback products on the other hand should by design stronger address user experience factors like comfort temperatures.
One of the most pressing issues of climate policy is how to get building owners to invest in the energy efficiency of their homes. The German federal government has set the goal of decreasing the energy demand of buildings by 80 to 95 percent until 2050. One pillar of the strategy to support building owners in this task is the provision of targeted energy advice, to both motivate owners to implement an energy efficiency refurbishment and help them to choose the most efficient measures. In this paper we analysed the demand for energy advice in three German cities of the Ruhr area finding the number of energy consulting provided to be extremely low compared to the stated goals. Based on the approach of joint knowledge production we invited stakeholders from the three cities to participate in a series of workshops in order to develop ideas how to more effectively bring homeowners and energy advisors together. As a result, different energy advice experiments were co-operatively developed for each city targeting different groups by using tailored channels for outreach. The evaluation of both the process as well as the outcome of the experiments indicates that while joint knowledge production is a suitable approach to enable knowledge transfer and formation of new networks between different stakeholders in science and practice, it does not necessarily lead to superior approaches with regard to effectively addressing a policy issue at hand. Apart from the experiment in which the window of opportunity change of building ownership was taken advantage of, participation of target groups in the experiments has been soberingly low, underlining the value of so-called trigger points when designing effective outreach strategies to building owners.
As of June 2017, 150 countries have ratified the Paris Climate Agreement. This agreement calls for, among other things, strong reductions in CO2 emissions by 2030 and beyond. This paper reviews the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs) plans of six Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and compares their current and projected future CO2 levels across sectors, and their stated targets in the context of their economic and demographic situations. This comparison reveals wide variations in the types of targets, with the "ambition" level changing as the perspective changes from total CO2 to CO2/capita and per unit gross domestic product (GDP). We also review national plans as stated in NDCs and find that while there are many types of policies listed, few are quantified and no attempts are made to score individual or groups of policies for their likelihood in achieving stated targets. We conclude that more analysis is needed to better understand the possible impacts of current policies and plans on CO2 emissions, and whether current plans are adequate to hit targets. Considerations on better aligning targets are also provided.
Against the background of the question which role tax based instruments have to play in policy mixes to counteract the unbroken growth trend of global resource use, this chapter initially describes how the insights from a country comparative study on national resource policy frameworks could be linked to instruments for the internalisation of external environmental costs on a European scale. On the basis of a project specific but substantiated resource use vision and potential governance principles for three transition processes to reach the goals, the tax concepts are subsequently connected to simulation scenarios in order to illustrate the resource impacts that could be achieved by those policy reforms. Conclusively, barriers to such fundamental changes of framework conditions are briefly reflected upon and some conclusions are drawn.
As the recent withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement has shown, political volatility directly affects climate change mitigation policies, in particular in sectors, such as transport associated with long-term investments by individuals (vehicles) and by local and national governments (urban form and transport infrastructure and services). There is a large potential for cost-effective solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to improve the sustainability of the transport sector that is yet unexploited. Considering the cost-effectiveness and the potential for co-benefits, it is hard to understand why efficiency gains and CO2 emission reductions in the transport sector are still lagging behind this potential. Particularly interesting is the fact that there is substantial difference among countries with relatively similar economic performances in the development of their transport CO2 emissions over the past thirty years despite the fact that these countries had relatively similar access to efficient technologies and vehicles. This study aims to explore some well-established political science theories on the particular example of climate change mitigation in the transport sector in order to identify some of the factors that could help explain the variations in success of policies and strategies in this sector. The analysis suggests that institutional arrangements that contribute to consensus building in the political process provide a high level of political and policy stability which is vital to long-term changes in energy end-use sectors that rely on long-term investments. However, there is no direct correlation between institutional structures, e.g., corporatism and success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. Environmental objectives need to be built into the consensus-based policy structure before actual policy progress can be observed. This usually takes longer in consensus democracies than in politically more agile majoritarian policy environments, but the policy stability that builds on corporatist institutional structures is likely to experience changes over a longer-term, in this case to a shift towards low-carbon transport that endures.
This paper outlines the key elements of a low-carbon stabilization pathway for land transport, focusing on the potential of key policy measures at the local and national level, opportunities for synergies of sustainable development and climate change objectives, and governance and institutional issues affecting the implementation of measures. It combines several approaches to provide an integrated view on the decarbonization of the transport sector based on recent literature. It will assess the quantitative basis potential climate change mitigation pathways and will then look into policy and institutional aspects that relate to the feasibility of these pathways. This combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis to measure the potential, options, and feasibility of climate change mitigation strategies in the transport sector aims to synthesize recent papers on the subject and draw conclusions for future research.
Decoupling energy and resource use from growth in the Indian construction sector : a baseline study
(2017)
India is currently at a crucial juncture where it is aiming for economic growth to meet the basic needs of its 1.2 billion people. However, so far this growth has resulted in energy shortages and the increasing use of limited resources. This policy brief series is about decoupling, i.e. improving efficiency to reduce the resources and energy needed for this growth and meet the country's increasing development needs.
The construction sector is highly resource and energy intensive; it is therefore imperative that it moves towards a path of environmental sustainability. This transition is likely to be achieved by decoupling both resource and energy use from the sector's growth. Decision-makers in the sector will play a crucial role in achieving this. The aim of this policy brief series is to inform decision-makers in India at central government and state level about the current status of research, policy and institutions in the Indian construction sector and to identify key drivers and barriers. Finally, practical recommendations will be made for decision-makers about how to promote decoupling of resource and energy use from growth in the construction sector.
Policy brief 1 focuses on the baseline for decoupling in the Indian construction sector. The study draws attention to the existing scenario in terms of key policies, research and institutions linked to resources and energy in the sector.