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The increasing rate of renewable energies poses new challenges for industries: the amount of wind and solar energy is by far more subject to fluctuations than that of fossil based energy. Large production facilities from the aluminium, cement, steel or paper industry, however, depend on a highly secure energy supply. To which amount is a limitation of fluctuations possible? This was the key question of the project "Flexibilisation of Industries Enables Sustainable Energy systems", which was realised by the Wuppertal Institute in cooperation with the polymers company Covestro last year. In the final report, authors around project co-ordinator Karin Arnold not only show which technological and economic parameters have been considered, but also present possible business models to promote "flexibility products".
Among the factors that decelerate progress of CCS demonstration and deployment is the lack of public acceptance of local projects in Germany as well as in other countries. The study presented here aims to take the issue of public CCS perceptions further by empirically investigating the relevance of different specifications of the three main steps of the CCS chain, i.e. capture, transport and storage. An experimental approach is chosen and applied in an online survey with a representative sample from Germany with 1830 participants. With regard to possible CO2 sources we varied whether the CO2 of a specific setting is captured i) as part of an energy-intensive industry process (e.g. production of steel or cement), ii) from a power plant running on biomass, or iii) a coal-fired power plant. For transport, half of the settings described made reference to transport of CO2 via pipelines, the other half did not provide information about transport. With regard to storage the setting descriptions i) either explained that CO2 can be stored in saline aquifers, ii) can be used to enhance gas production from an emptying natural gas field or iii) can be stored in a depleted natural gas field. We find that overall the average of the ratings for perception of the settings fall into the neutral part of the answering scale. If the source of CO2 is a coal-fired power plant the setting is perceived less positively than if it includes biomass or industry. A significant interaction effect between transport and storage specifications is observed. This points out that storage in saline aquifers is perceived more negatively than a combination with enhanced gas recovery while storage in a depleted natural gas field is rated less positively if a pipeline is mentioned and more positively if no transport option is mentioned.
One of the factors decelerating a further diffusion of the carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is the public's negative perception of early pilot or demonstration activities in Germany as well as in other countries. This study examined the public perception of CCS in more detail by looking into different options within the CCS chain, i.e. for the three elements capture, transport and storage. This was analyzed using an experimental approach, realized in an online survey with a representative German sample of 1830 citizens. Each participant evaluated one of 18 different CCS scenarios created using three types of CO2 source (industry, biomass, coal), two transport options (pipeline vs. no specification), and three storage possibilities (saline aquifer, depleted gas field, enhanced gas recovery (EGR)).
Overall, we found that the ratings of CCS were neutral on average. However, if the CO2 is produced by a biomass power plant or industry, CCS is rated more positively than in a scenario with a coal-fired power plant. The specifications of transport and storage interacted with each other such that scenarios including EGR or a depleted gas field without mentioning a pipeline were evaluated better than storing it in a saline aquifer or a depleted gas field and mentioning a pipeline as means of transport. Exploratory regression analyses indicate the high relevance of the respective CO2 source in general as well as the perceived importance of this source for Germany.
CCS is discussed in a broad sense throughout Europe. In this paper a cautious, conservative estimate of CO2 storage capacity for Germany and its neighbouring countries where CO2 emissions from Germany could possibly be stored (Netherlands, France, Denmark, Norway, UK and Poland) is presented. Such a lower limit calculation is necessary for orientation purposes for potential investors and political decision-makers.
Conservative CO2 sequestration capacity in deep saline aquifers for Germany is derived by the volumetric approach where parameters such as efficiency factor, CO2 density, porosity of the geological formation are of interest. It is assumed that every geological system is closed and thus an efficiency factor of 0.1 per cent (based on maximum pressure increase and total compressibility) for saline aquifers is applied. The capacity of German depleted oil and gas fields is based on cumulative recovery data and a sweep efficiency of 75 per cent. The storage capacity in the other considered countries, adjacent to Germany, are based on a critical review and adjustment of the results of the European reports JOULE II, GESTCO and GeoCapacity.
The conservative capacities for all countries together amount to 49 Gt CO2, from which Norway and the UK provide 36 Gt, all offshore in the North Sea. Compared to the emissions from large point sources in these countries during 40 years (47.6 Gt of CO2), a virtual balance is achieved. This can only be reached, if a large scale CO2 pipeline system is installed to connect these countries, especially Germany, to the large sinks in the North Sea. If additional restrictions like source-sink matching, acceptance issues and injection rates constraints are taken into account, the available storage space gets increasingly scarce.
Facing the uncertainty of CO2 storage capacity in China by developing different storage scenarios
(2016)
China is very active in the research and development of CO2 capture and storage technologies (CCS). However, existing estimates for CO2 storage capacity are very uncertain. This uncertainty is due to limited geological knowledge, a lack of large-scale research on CO2 injection, and different assessment approaches and parameter settings. Hence storage scenarios represent a method that can be used by policy makers to demonstrate the range of possible storage capacity developments, to help interpret uncertain results and to identify the limitations of existing assessments. In this paper, three storage scenarios are developed for China by evaluating China-wide studies supplemented with more detailed site- and basin-specific assessments. It is estimated that the greatest storage potential can be found in deep saline aquifers. Oil and gas fields may also be used. Coal seams are only included in the highest storage scenario. In total, the scenarios presented demonstrate that China has an effective storage capacity of between 65 and 1551 Gt of CO2. Furthermore, the authors emphasise a need for action to harmonise storage capacity assessment approaches due to the uncertainties involved in the capacity assessments analysed in this study.
The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is home to one of the most important industrial regions in Europe, and is the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Protection Law (CPL). This paper describes the long-term (up to 2050) mitigation scenarios for NRW’s main energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors which served to support the implementation of the CPL. It also describes the process of scenario development, as these scenarios were developed through stakeholder participation. The scenarios considered three different pathways (best-available technologies, break-through technologies, and CO2 capture and storage). All pathways had optimistic assumptions on the rate of industrial growth and availability of low-carbon electricity. We find that a policy of "re-industrialisation" for NRW based on the current industrial structures (assumed here to represent an average growth of NRWs industrial gross value added (GVA) of 1.6% per year until 2030 and 0.6% per year from 2030 to 2050), would pose a significant challenge for the achievement of overall energy demand and German greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets, in particular as remaining efficiency potentials in NRW are limited. In the best-available technology (BAT) scenario CO2 emission reductions of only 16% are achieved, whereas the low carbon (LC) and the carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario achieve 50% and 79% reduction respectively. Our results indicate the importance of successful development and implementation of a decarbonised electricity supply and breakthrough technologies in industry - such as electrification, hydrogen-based processes for steel, alternative cements or CCS - if significant growth is to be achieved in combination with climate mitigation. They, however, also show that technological solutions alone, together with unmitigated growth in consumption of material goods, could be insufficient to meet GHG reduction targets in industry.
This paper draws upon an extensive transdisciplinary scenario development in the context of the stakeholder oriented preparation of the climate protection plan of the German federal state North Rhine-Westphalia, which is home to the most important heavy industry cluster in Europe. In that context we developed differentiated bottom up climate change mitigation strategies and scenarios for the major energy intensive industries aluminium, iron and steel, cement, lime, paper and steam cracker for olefin production together with representatives of industry as well as society.
The CO2 utilisation is discussed as one of the future low-carbon technologies in order to accomplish a full decarbonisation in the energy intensive industry. CO2 is separated from the flue gas stream of power plants or industrial plants and is prepared for further processing as raw material. CO2 containing gas streams from industrial processes exhibit a higher concentration of CO2 than flue gases from power plants; consequentially, industrial CO2 sources are used as raw material for the chemical industry and for the synthesis of fuel on the output side. Additionally, fossil resources can be replaced by substitutes of reused CO2 on the input side. If set up in a right way, this step into a CO2-based circular flow economy could make a contribution to the decarbonisation of the industrial sector and according to the adjusted potential, even rudimentarily to the energy sector.
In this study, the authors analyse potential CO2 sources, the potential demand and the range of applications of CO2. In the last chapter of the final report, they give recommendations for research, development, politics and economics for an appropriate future designing of CO2 utilisation options based upon their previous analysis.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) might be an important climate protection technology for coal-rich countries. This paper presents first results of a systemic and long-term analysis of a future CCS implementation in India. It focuses on potential storage formations in the geological subsurface and the geographic match of these sinks with CO2 emissions of current and future largepoint power plants. The analysis is framed by an overview on India’s position on CCS, ongoing Indian research and development projects as well as its international activities.
The geological potential for CO2 sequestration in India is subject to large uncertainty because, so far, only few studies estimated it in a vague manner. A first meta-analysis shows that there is a huge variation between 48 Gt and 572 Gt of CO2. The main differences between the evaluated studies are the assumed capacities for deep saline aquifers and basalt formations. Taking the ongoing discussion and the existing uncertainties into account, the storage potential might be provided only by aquifers (in the range of 44 to 360 Gt of CO2) and hydrocarbon fields (2 to 7 Gt of CO2).
The amount of CO2 emissions possibly available for sequestration is assessed by applying three substantially different long-term energy scenarios for India. These scenarios, indicating pathways between a "low carbon" and a "high carbon" development until 2050, result in cumulated CO2 emissions between 30 and 171 Gt if all new large-scaled power plants will be based on CCS from 2020 on. Compared with the sink capacities, only the CO2 emissions of scenario S2 (30 Gt) could theoretically be stored with high certainty. Considering the scenarios S3 and S1, their CO2 emissions (94 Gt and 171 Gt, respectively) could only be sequestered if the aquifer capacity would prove to be usable. Geological storage sites do not appear to be located close to sources in South West, Central, North and North East India. This first rough analysis means that only those CO2 emissions occurring in the Western parts of North and West India, the Eastern part of South India as well as the South part of East India might be suited for sequestration nearby.
A more detailed source-sink matching will follow in the next phase of the project, including results of expert meetings in India. Furthermore, this analysis will be complemented by an additional assessment from economic, ecological and resource-strategic points of view, which might further affect the potential for CCS.
If the current energy policy priorities are retained, there may be no need to focus additionally on carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power plant sector of Germany. This applies even in the case of ambitious climate protection targets, according to the results of the presented integrated assessment study. These cover a variety of aspects: Firstly, the technology is not expected to become available on a large scale in Germany before 2025. Secondly, if renewable energies and combined heat and power are expanded further and energy productivity is enhanced, there is likely to be only a limited demand for CCS power plants, as a scenario analysis of CCS deployment in Germany shows. Thirdly, cost analysis using the learning curve approach shows that the electricity generation costs of renewable electricity approach those of CCS power plants. This leads to the consequence that, from 2020, several renewable technologies may well be in a position to offer electricity at a cheaper rate than CCS power plants. In addition, a review of new life cycle assessments for CO2 separation in the power plant sector indicates that the greenhouse gas emissions from 1 kW h of electricity generated by first-generation CCS power plants could only be reduced by 68 % to 87 % (95 % in individual cases). Finally, a cautious, conservative estimate of the effective German CO2 storage capacity of approximately 5 billion tonnes of CO2 is calculated, including a fluctuation range yielding values between 4 and 15 billion tonnes of CO2. Therefore, the total CO2 emissions caused by large point sources in Germany could be stored for 12 years (basic value) or for 8 or 33 years (sensitivity values).
Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in India's power sector : an integrated assessment
(2014)
Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in India. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. However, each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract).
Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data since only rough figures concerning the theoretical capacity exist at present. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 13 and 111 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country's CO2 storage potential are applied, 75 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken by considering the country's effective storage potential, only a fraction may potentially be sequestered. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in India, a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS, an expected net maximum reduction rate of the power plant’s greenhouse gas emissions of 71-74%, an increase of most other environmental and social impacts, and a lack of governmental, industrial or societal CCS advocates.
Conclusion and practice implications: Several preconditions need to be fulfilled if CCS is to play a future role in reducing CO2 emissions in India, the most crucial one being to determine reliable storage capacity figures. In order to overcome these barriers, the industrialised world would need to make a stronger commitment in terms of CCS technology demonstration, cooperation and transfer to emerging economies like India. The integrated assessment might also be extended by a comparison with other low-carbon technology options to draw fully valid conclusions on the most suitable solution for a sustainable future energy supply in India.
Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China's power sector : an integrated assessment
(2015)
Objective: The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO2 emissions in China. Methods: In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen. Each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract). Results: The most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 34 and 221 Gt of CO2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country’s CO2 storage potential are applied, 192 Gt of CO2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken, this figure falls to 29 Gt of CO2. In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in China; a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS due to a currently non-existing nation-wide CO2 pricing scheme that generates a sufficiently strong price signal; an expected life-cycle reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 59-60%; and an increase in most other negative environmental and social impacts. Conclusion and practice implications: Most experts expect a striking dominance of coal-fired power generation in the country's electricity sector, even if the recent trend towards a flattened deployment of coal capacity and reduced annual growth rates of coal-fired generation proves to be true in the future. In order to reduce fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions to a level that would be consistent with the long-term climate protection target of the international community to which China is increasingly committing itself, this option may require the introduction of CCS. However, a precondition for opting for CCS would be finding robust solutions to the constraints highlighted in this article. Furthermore, a comparison with other low-carbon technology options may be useful in drawing completely valid conclusions on the economic, ecological and social viability of CCS in a low-carbon policy environment. The assessment dimensions should be integrated into macro-economic optimisation models by combining qualitative with quantitative modelling, and the flexible operation of CCS power plants should be analysed in view of a possible role of CCS for balancing fluctuating renewable energies.