Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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On the pathway to climate neutrality, EU member states are obliged to submit national energy and climate plans (NECPs) with planned policies and measures for decarbonization until 2030 and long-term strategies (LTSs) for further decarbonization until 2050. We analysed the 27 NECPs and 15 LTSs submitted by October 2020 using an interrater method. This paper focuses on energy sufficiency policies and measures in the transport sector.
We found a total of 236 sufficiency policy measures with more than half of them (53 %) in the transport/mobility sector. Additionally, we found 41 measures that address two or more sectors (cross-sectoral measures). From the explicit sufficiency measures within the transport sector, 82 % aim at modal shift. A reduction of transport volumes is much less addressed. Countries plan to use mainly fiscal and economic instruments. Those are in many cases investments in infrastructure of low-carbon transport modes and taxation instruments. Plans on decarbonisation measures are also frequently mentioned. The majority of cross-sectoral measures are carbon taxes or tax reforms, also economic instruments.
On the one hand it is encouraging that Member States strongly emphasize the transport sector in their NECPs and LTSs - at least quantitatively and concerning sufficiency measures - because this sector has been the worst-performing in climate mitigation so far. On the other hand, the measures described seem not sufficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and we doubt that the presented set of policy instruments will get the transport sector on track to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the necessary extent.
The unprecedented challenge of reaching carbon neutrality before mid-century and a large share of it within 2030 in order to keep under the 1.5 or 2 °C carbon budgets, requires broad and deep changes in production and consumption patterns which, together with a shift to renewables and reinforced efficiency, need to be addressed through energy sufficiency. However, inadequate representations and obstacles to characterising and identifying sufficiency potentials often lead to an underrepresentation of sufficiency in models, scenarios and policies.
One way to tackle this issue is to work on the development of sufficiency assumptions at a concrete level where various implications such as social consequences, environmental co-benefits, conditions for implementation can be discussed. This approach has been developed as the backbone of a collaborative project, gathering partners in 20 European countries at present, aiming for the integration of harmonised national scenarios into an ambitious net-zero European vision.
The approach combines a qualitative discussion on the role of energy sufficiency in a "systemic" merit order for global sustainability, and a quantitative discussion of the level of sufficiency to be set to contribute to meeting 100 % renewables supply and net-zero emissions goals by 2050 at the latest. The latter is based on the use of a dashboard, which serves as a common descriptive framework for all national scenario trajectories and their comparison, with a view to harmonising and strengthening them through an iterative process.
A set of key sufficiency-related indicators have been selected to be included in the dashboard, while various interrelated infrastructural, economic, environmental, social or legal factors or drivers have been identified and mapped. This paves the way for strengthening assumptions through the elaboration of "sufficiency corridors" defining a convergent, acceptable and sustainable level of energy services in Europe. The process will eventually inform the potential for sufficiency policies through a better identification of leverages, impacts and co-benefits.
Contemporary combined heat and power (CHP) systems are often based on fossil fuels, such as natural gas or heating oil. Thereby, small-scale cogeneration systems are intended to replace or complement traditional heating equipment in residential buildings. In addition to space heating or domestic hot water supply, electricity is generated for the own consumption of the building or to be sold to the electric power grid.
The adaptation of CHP-systems to renewable energy sources, such as solid biomass applications is challenging, because of feedstock composition and heat integration. Nevertheless, in particular smallscale CHP technologies based on biomass gasification and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) offer significant potentials, also regarding important co-benefits, such as security of energy supply as well as emission reductions in terms of greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Besides emission or air quality regulations, the development of CHP technologies for clean on-site small-scale power generation is also strongly incentivised by energy efficiency policies for residential appliances, such as e.g. Ecodesign and Energy Labelling in the European Union (EU). Furthermore, solid residual biomass as renewable local energy source is best suited for decentralised operations such as micro-grids, also to reduce long-haul fuel transports. By this means such distributed energy resource technology can become an essential part of a forward-looking strategy for net zero energy or even smart plus energy buildings.
In this context, this paper presents preliminary impact assessment results and most recent environmental considerations from the EU Horizon 2020 project "FlexiFuel-SOFC" (Grant Agreement no. 641229), which aims at the development of a novel CHP system, consisting of a fuel flexible smallscale fixed-bed updraft gasifier technology, a compact gas cleaning concept and an SOFC for electricity generation. Besides sole system efficiencies, in particular resource and emission aspects of solid fuel combustion and net electricity effects need to be considered. The latter means that vastly less emission intensive gasifier-fuel cell CHP technologies cause significant less fuel related emissions than traditional heating systems, an effect which is further strengthened by avoided emissions from more emission intensive traditional grid electricity generation. As promising result, operation "net" emissions of such on-site generation installations may be virtually zero or even negative. Additionally, this paper scopes central regulatory instruments for small-scale CHP systems in the EU to discuss ways to improve the framework for system deployment.
The overall objective of the web-based consumer information tool Euro-Topten is to promote the market transformation towards energy efficient products. Euro-Topten informs consumers about the most energy efficient products in various categories and thereby aims to directly influence the purchasing decisions of individuals or professional buyers.
Providers of internet-based information tools are confronted with the problem, that there is no bidirectional interaction with the users. Hence, it is difficult to evaluate if the specific needs of users are addressed, if and how the user processes this information and to what extent the information influences the user's decision making process.
To study these questions, a web-based survey was conducted in two consecutive rounds. In the first round the survey focused on the assessment of the information tool itself and the motivation for using the Euro-Topten websites. This survey was online on all active Euro-Topten partner websites from October to December 2012. In total, 1791 users completed the survey.
In the second round, a subset of the survey population was queried again. 1,043 participants agreed to take part in a more comprehensive follow up survey, 383 completed the second survey between May and July 2013. The second survey concentrated on the question how Euro-Topten has influenced the purchasing behaviour of the survey participants. This gave significant insights on how the information on the Euro-Topten websites has affected purchasing decisions of the surveyed users.
Based on a comparison of performance indicators of the most efficient products recommended on the Euro-Topten websites with performance indicators of a base case product available on the market, avoided energy demand could be estimated for those users, who bought products from the Euro-Topten list. Based on these results, two impacts of Euro-Topten could be estimated: The influence of Euro-Topten on purchasing decision of users and the associated reductions in energy demand and CO2-emissions.
Conventional new buildings in OECD countries with a history of building codes save about 50 % of energy compared to average buildings in the building stock. This improvement, however, is not enough to create a building standard with low lifetime costs nor to reach long-term climate protection targets. Much higher energy savings can already be achieved through proven high-efficiency building concepts bringing net economic benefits among other advantages.
A strategic approach to integrated building design is the key to achieving these high-energy savings at low or no extra cost in residential buildings. In our paper we describe the "Easy Efficiency Approach", which can reduce primary energy consumption by 40 to 60 % compared to conventional new building standards, or by 70% to 80% when compared to the primary energy consumption of the existing building stock, and should be regarded as the minimum. This strategy focuses on low-cost options, mainly passive options. Although it can already significantly reduce energy consumption, this first step will not be sufficient to reach long-term climate protection goals. It is thus necessary to implement and support what we call an "Advanced Efficiency Approach", with savings up to 90% , as compared to new building standards, as soon as possible to avoid lock-in effects. Further improvements, especially through the active use of renewable energies, reduce the net primary energy demand to 0 % and beyond.
According to the chosen strategy clearly defined energy performance ranges, with reference to possible savings, for different climate zones worldwide are given. In verifying this approach simulations with BAT (Best Available Technologies) buildings of different types (single family, multi family, high rise) were carried out in close cooperation with project partners. This data has also been verified through an empirical database of built examples both for energy consumption as well their economic soundness.
Refrigerators and freezers (subsumed under the term "cold appliances") are among the most widely used electrical appliances in the residential sector all around the world. Currently, about 1.4 billion domestic cold appliances worldwide use about 650 TWh electricity, which is 1.2 times Germany’s total electricity consumption, and cause CO2 emissions of 450 million tons of CO2eq.
Although the specific electricity consumption per volume of cold appliances has decreased during recent years due to technical progress and policy instruments like labelling and eco-design requirements, total worldwide energy consumption of these appliances is on the increase. Scenario calculations were carried out for 10 world regions by the Wuppertal Institute. Results show that about half of the energy consumption could be saved with the most energy-efficient appliances available today, and even higher savings will be possible with next generation technologies by 2030. According to the analysis, these savings are usually very cost-effective.
All these aspects are part of the new website "bigEE.net - Your guide to energy efficiency in buildings" which aims to provide information about technical options but also about policies to support the development of energy-efficient appliances.
To initiate and foster market transformation of energy-efficient appliances it is highly advisable for policymakers to generate appliances-specific policy packages. Since each regional market has its specificity (e.g. energy prices, typical appliance affecting the cost effectiveness of efficient appliances), the barriers for the market transformation of single product groups are also specific and need to be addressed by appropriate policies and measures. Elements of measures to build appropriate specific policy packages for refrigerators will be presented in the paper, and the refrigerator package from California (USA) demonstrates the successful implementation of a sector-specific package.
Increasing urbanisation and climate change belong to the greatest challenges of the 21st century. A high share of global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to originate in urban areas (40 % to 78 % according to UN Habitat 2010). Therefore, low carbon city strategies and concepts implicate large greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials. At the same time, with high population and infrastructure densities as well as concentrated economic activities, cities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and need to adapt. Scarce natural resources further constrain the leeway for long-term, sustainable urban development. The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at tapping this three-dimensional challenge and will develop an integrated strategy / roadmap, balancing low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The study focuses on two pilot regions - one in China (Wuxi) and one in Germany (Düsseldorf+) - and is conducted by a German-Chinese research team supported by the German Stiftung Mercator. The paper gives an overview of first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi. The project developed an emission inventory for Wuxi to identify key sectors for further analysis and low carbon scenarios. The future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2030 were simulated in the current policy scenario (CPS), using five different sub-models. Selected aspects of Wuxi's current material and water flows were analysed and modelled for energy transformation and the building sector. Current and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Recent climatic changes and resulting damages were analysed, expected changes in temperature and precipitation in the coming four decades were projected using ensembles of three General Circulation Models. Although Wuxi's government started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that more ambitious efforts are needed to overcome the challenges faced.
Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU's GHG emissions by 2020, we show that the 20% energy savings target set in the Action Plan "Doing more with less" in 2006 is still the most significant and thus indispensable strategy element within an ambitious EU climate and energy strategy targeting at a 30% reduction of GHG emissions by 2020.
The scenario analysis provides a sector by sector projection of potential future energy use and GHG emissions, combined with a detailed policy analysis of the core policies on energy efficiency by the EU and its Member States taken from current research results by the authors and others.
Consequently the paper identifies and quantifies the current implementation deficit in the EU and shows that, despite of sufficient targets, implementation is still significantly lacking in almost all fields of energy efficiency. Some, e.g. transport sector and buildings, are still substantially far from receiving the necessary political impetus. The paper also demonstrates co-benefits of a strong energy efficiency strategy, e.g. the achievability of the targets of the RES directive, which crucially depends on a strong efficiency policy.
We conclude that the efforts of the energy efficiency policy of the EU and its Member States have to be significantly intensfied. As proposed by the EU in case that other developed and key developing countries take up comparable targets in order to fulfil its role in the climate and energy strategy. To achieve this, we offer an analysis of the current weaknesses of EU energy efficiency policy and derive recommendations on how the EU can still reach its targets for 2020.
Innovation and diffusion of car-sharing for sustainable consumption and production of urban mobility
(2008)
Toothless tiger? : Is the EU action plan on energy efficiency sufficient to reach its target?
(2007)
Motivated by, inter alia, the increasing energy prices, the security of energy supply and climate change, the new EU "Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Realising the Potential" (EEAP), sets out the policies and measures required to be implemented over the next six years to achieve the EU's goal of reducing annual primary energy consumption by about 20 % by 2020. By increasing energy efficiency, the security of energy supply and the reduction of carbon emissions are also improved.
The paper will analyse the 20 % target of the new EEAP for the energy demand side by comparison with different recent energy scenarios for the EU. It will therefore review the recommended policies and measures and examine, in which energy demand sectors energy efficiency may be increased and to which extend. The main focus is whether the recommended policies and actions will be sufficient and which additional measures may be useful, if additional measures are needed.
Future of car-sharing in Germany : customer potential estimation, diffusion and ecological effect
(2007)
About 2 % of the overall electricity consumption of the EU is caused by circulators in single or double family homes and flats. A new technology of pumps with electronically commutated (EC) motor pumps is available now; it is one possible way to achieve a reduction in circulator annual electricity use by 60 % or more.
The project's objective is a market transformation towards this new very energy-efficient pump technologies - Energy+ pumps - for circulators in heating systems, both stand alone and integrated in boilers. Only few manufacturers have so far introduced the new pump technology to the market for single or double family homes and flats.
To bring more products to the market from all major manufacturers, the project will adapt and apply the technology procurement methodology as it was very successfully tested in the European Energy+ project on energy-efficient cold appliances.
Large buyers will be aggregated, to activate the pump and boiler manufacturers. Sales and training materials and a sizing spreadsheet software for installation contractors will be developed and applied. A competition both for energy-efficient products and marketing campaigns will be organised and the information on the Energy+ pumps will be disseminated widely through website, newsletter, media, and fairs.
This paper gives a short overview of this project and presents the results of the first project phases: a European wide market study on circulators and heating systems, and the first Energy+ lists for circulators, buyers and supporters.
Under the framework of the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol the targets and strategies for the second and third commitment period ("post-2012") have to be discussed and set in the near future. Regarding the substantial emission reductions that have to be shouldered by the industrialized nations over the next two decades it is evident that all available potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have to be harnessed and that energy efficiency has to play a key role.
To substantiate this we developed a comprehensive scenario analysis of the EU 25s energy system and other greenhouse gas emissions until 2020. Our analysis shows which key potentials to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are available, by which policies and measures they are attainable
and which will be benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation measures.
By this analysis we show the mayor role of energy efficiency in all sectors and all member states. We demonstrate that a reduction of EU 25 greenhouse gas emissions by more than 30 % by 2020 is feasible, reasonable and - to a large extent - cost effective. We also develop a comprehensive policy package necessary to achieve ambitious Post-Kyoto targets.
The scenario analysis results in a clear identification of the needed strategies, policies and measures and especially the relevance of energy efficiency to achieve the necessary ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. It also clearly shows the costs and the benefits of such a policy compared to a business as usual case.