Zukünftige Energie- und Industriesysteme
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Im Auftrag der Fraktion BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN im Bayerischen Landtag haben Forschende des Wuppertal Instituts wissenschaftlich überprüft, wie viele Treibhausgas-Emissionen im Jahr 2030 bestimmte landespolitische Klimaschutz-Maßnahmen potenziell einsparen können. Die vorliegende Studie schätzt dabei sowohl die Effekte der Maßnahmen auf die insgesamt verursachten Treibhausgas-Emissionen (Verursacherprinzip) als auch auf die in Bayern selbst statistisch erfassten Emissionen (Quellenprinzip) ab.
Die Maßnahmen adressieren die folgenden fünf Bereiche: 1) Gebäude und Verkehrsmittel im Besitz der öffentlichen Hand. 2) Ausbau der Windenergie und Photovoltaik. 3) Energieeffizienz im Gebäudesektor. 4) Energieeffizienz und Verkehrsverlagerung im Transportsektor. 5) Landwirtschaft und Landnutzung.
Zwei Beispiele der untersuchten Maßnahmen sind Verbesserungen der Rahmenbedingungen für den Bau neuer Windenergieanlagen und eine stärkere Nutzung des industriellen Abwärmepotenzials.
Die vorliegende Darstellung vergleicht fünf ausgewählte aktuelle Klimaschutzszenarien für Deutschland in Hinblick auf zentrale Entwicklungen im Energiesystem bis Mitte des Jahrhunderts. Die fünf Szenarien sind zwischen April und Oktober 2021 erschienen und beschreiben unterschiedliche Pfade, wie Klimaneutralität in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2045 bzw. 2050 erreicht werden könnte. Die Szenarien wurden von verschiedenen Organisationen in Auftrag gegeben und von unterschiedlichen wissenschaftlichen Instituten bzw. Beratungsunternehmen erarbeitet.
Im vorliegenden Vergleich werden verschiedene Kenngrößen des Energiesystems auf Energieangebots- sowie Energienachfrageseite betrachtet. Die Gegenüberstellung der jeweiligen Entwicklungen in den Szenarien soll aufzeigen, in welchen Bereichen die Studien auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität ähnliche Entwicklungen vorsehen und in welchen Bereichen es derzeit noch deutlich abweichende Vorstellungen über die genaue Ausgestaltung der Energiesystemtransformation gibt.
Damit sich die weltweit zunehmend ambitionierten Klimaschutzziele erreichen lassen, müssen auch im Industriesektor weitgehende Emissionsreduktionen innerhalb weniger Jahrzehnte realisiert werden. Expertinnen und Experten sind sich einig, dass dies nicht ohne den Umstieg von fossilen auf erneuerbare Energieträger und Rohmaterialien - sogenannte Feedstocks - umsetzbar ist. Im Zuge der verstärkten Nutzung dieser grünen Energieträger ist denkbar, dass sich deren Verfügbarkeit und Kosten zu immer wichtigeren Standortfaktoren für die Produktion industrieller Güter entwickeln werden. Dies könnte dazu führen, dass zukünftig Standorte mit kostengünstiger Verfügbarkeit von erneuerbaren Energien attraktiver gegenüber anderen Standorten werden und es dann zu Standortverlagerungen kommt - insbesondere im Bereich der energieintensiven Industrie.
In dem vorliegenden Artikel greifen die Autoren diese möglichen Verlagerungen industrieller Produktion auf. In diesem Zusammenhang führen sie auch den Begriff "Renewables Pull" ein. Die in bestimmten Regionen der Welt kostengünstig und in großen Mengen verfügbaren erneuerbaren Energien könnten nach Ansicht der Autoren künftig eine Sogwirkung auslösen und bestimmte Teile der industriellen Produktion anziehen - auch Pull-Effekt genannt.
The Port of Rotterdam is an important industrial cluster, comprising mainly oil refining, chemical production and power generation. In 2016, the port's industry accounted for 19% of the Netherlands' total CO2 emissions. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is aware that the cluster is heavily exposed to future decarbonisation policies, as most of its activities focus on trading, handling, converting and using fossil fuels. Based on a study for the Port Authority using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods, our article explores three pathways whereby the port's industry can maintain its strong position while significantly reducing its CO2 emissions and related risks by 2050. The pathways differ in terms of the EU's assumed climate change mitigation ambitions and the key technological choices made by the cluster's companies. The focus of the paper is on identifying key risks associated with each scenario and ways in which these could be mitigated.
The analysis of different global energy scenarios in part I of the report confirms that the exploitation of energy efficiency potentials and the use of renewable energies play a key role in reaching global CO2 reduction targets. An assessment on the basis of a broad literature research in part II shows that the technical potentials of renewable energy technologies are a multiple of today's global final energy consumption. The analysis of cost estimates for renewable electricity generation technologies and even long term cost projections across the key studies in part III demonstrates that assumptions are in reasonable agreement. In part IV it is shown that by implementing technical potentials for energy efficiency improvements in demand and supply sectors by 2050 can be limited to 48% of primary energy supply in IEA's "Energy Technology Perspectives" baseline scenario. It was found that a large potential for cost-effective measures exists, equivalent to around 55-60% of energy savings of all included efficiency measures (part V). The results of the analysis on behavioural changes in part VI show that behavioural dimensions are not sufficiently included in energy scenarios. Accordingly major research challenges are revealed.
In this paper a new method for the evaluation and comparison of potential future electricity systems is presented. The German electricity system in the year 2050 is used as an example. Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis defining a corridor for possible shares of fluctuating renewable energy sources (FRES) residual loads are calculated in a unified manner. The share of electricity from PV and wind power plants in Germany in the year 2050 is in a range of 42-122% and the load demand has a bandwidth of around 460-750 TWh. The residual loads are input for an algorithm that defines a supplementary mix of technologies providing flexibility to the system. The overall system layout guarantees the balance of generation and demand at all times. Due to the fact that the same method for residual load calculation and mixture of technologies is applied for all scenarios, a good comparability is guaranteed and we are able to identify key characteristics for future developments. The unique feature of the new algorithms presented here is the very fast calculation for a year-long simulation with hourly or shorter time steps taking into account the state of charge or availability of all storage and flexibility technologies. This allows an analysis of many different scenarios on a macro-economic level, variation of input parameters can easily be done, and extensive sensitivity analysis is possible. Furthermore different shares of FRES, CO2-emission targets, interest rates or social acceptance of certain technologies can be included. The capabilities of the method are demonstrated by an analysis of potential German power system layouts with a base scenario of 90% CO2-reduction target compared to 1990 and by the identification of different options for a power sector with a high degree of decarbonisation. The approach also aims at a very high level of transparency both regarding the algorithms and regarding the input parameters of the different technologies taken into account. Therefore this paper also gives a comprehensive and complete overview on the technology parameters used. The forecast on all technologies for the year 2050 regarding technical and economic parameters was made in a comprehensive consultation process with more than 100 experts representing academia and industry working on all different technologies. An extensive analysis of options for the design of potential German energy supply systems in 2050 based on the presented methodology will be published in a follow-up paper.
Die große Herausforderung der Industrietransformation ist von besonderer Bedeutung für Nordrhein-Westfalen als eine der wichtigsten Industrieregionen Deutschlands und Europas, in der etwa die Hälfte der Anlagen der energieintensiven Grundstoffindustrie Deutschlands verortet sind und in der die industrielle Produktion wirtschaftlich eine besonders große Rolle spielt. Gleichzeitig kann eine gelingende Transformation der Industrie in NRW als Blaupause für andere Regionen dienen. Der vorliegende Bericht stellt die Ergebnisse des Forschungsprojekts SCI4climate.NRW 2018-2022 dar, welches die Industrietransformation in NRW wissenschaftlich begleitet und untersucht hat.
Rather than examining aggregate emissions trends, this study delves deep into the dynamics affecting each sector of the EU energy system. It examines the structural changes taking place in power production, transport, buildings and industry, and benchmarks these with the changes required to reach the 2030 and 2050 targets. In so doing it aims to influence both the ambition and direction of future policy decisions, both at Member State and EU level.
In order to assess the adequacy of the EU and its Member States policies with the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation objectives, this study goes beyond the aggregate GHG emissions or energy use figures and analyse the underlying drivers of emission changes, following a sectoral approach (power generation, buildings, industry, and transport). Historical trends of emission drivers are compared with the required long-term deep decarbonisation pathways, which provide sectoral "benchmarks" or "corridors" against which to analyse the rate and direction of historical change for each Member State and the EU in aggregate. This approach allows the identification of the necessary structural changes in the energy system and policy interventions to reach deep decarbonisation, and therefore the comparison with the current policy programs at European and Member State level.
Aufgrund der perspektivisch insbesondere mit dem benötigten weiteren Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien verbundenen weiter zunehmenden Auswirkungen der Energiesystemtransformation auf Landschaft und Ökosysteme erscheint es angemessen, dass Politik und Gesellschaft die Naturverträglichkeit der Energiewende bzw. ihrer konkreten Ausgestaltung stärker in den Blick nehmen als bisher. Denn eine angemessene Berücksichtigung und darauf aufbauende weitest mögliche Minderung der negativen Einflüsse von Energiewende-Maßnahmen auf die Natur ist aus verschiedenen Gründen von Bedeutung: Zum einen ist die gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz für das Gelingen der Energiewende entscheidend und eine weitgehend naturverträgliche Ausgestaltung der Energiewende kann diese Akzeptanz befördern. Zum anderen sind intakte Ökosysteme für das menschliche Wohlergehen von hoher Bedeutung und es kann darüberhinaus argumentiert werden, dass ihnen unabhängig vom Wert für den Menschen auch ein intrinsischer Wert zugesprochen werden sollte. (Zusätzliche) Ökosystemstörungen sollten folglich so weit wie möglich vermieden werden.
Vor diesem Hintergrund hat der Naturschutzbund Deutschland e.V. das Wuppertal Institut beauftragt, in dem vorliegenden Bericht mögliche Maßnahmen zu identifizieren und zu beschreiben, die sowohl wesentliche Beiträge zur Erreichung der Ziele der Energiewende leisten können, deren Umsetzung gleichzeitig aber nach derzeitigem Wissensstand keine oder nur geringe negative Auswirkungen auf die Natur hätte. Der Bericht soll dabei helfen, die Aufmerksamkeit auf gegenwärtig nicht ausgeschöpfte, von der Energiepolitik und auch von vielen vorliegenden Energiewende-Studien nicht oder wenig beachtete aber wahrscheinlich naturschutzgerechtere Klimaschutzoptionen zu richten und diese Optionen besser zu verstehen.
In recent years, a number of energy scenario studies which aim to advise policy makers on appropriate energy policy measures have been developed. These studies highlight changes required to achieve a future energy system that is in line with public policy goals such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions and an affordable energy supply. We argue that behavioural changes towards energy-sufficient lifestyles have considerable potential to contribute to public policy goals and may even be indispensable for achieving some of these goals. This potential should, therefore, be reflected in scenario studies aiming to provide comprehensive advice to policy makers. We analyse the role that energy-sufficient lifestyles play in prominent recent global energy scenario studies and find that these studies largely ignore the potential of possible behavioural changes towards energy-sufficient lifestyles. We also describe how such changes have been considered in several other scenario studies, in order to derive recommendations for the future development of global energy scenarios. We conclude that the inclusion of lifestyle changes in energy scenarios is both possible and useful. Based on our findings, we present some general advice for energy scenario developers on how to better integrate sufficiency into future energy scenario studies in a quantitative manner.
Wind energy that can neither be fed into the grid nor be used regionally must be curtailed. This paper proposes different options to deal with such surplus wind energy amounts in a time horizon until 2020. It assesses their ability to handle the surplus energy in a sustainable way using a multi criteria analysis. The paper bases on a study that was prepared for the Ministry for Climate Protection, Environment, Agriculture, Nature Conservation and Consumer Protection of North Rhine-Westphalia between 2010 and 2012.
Einige Klimaneutralitätsszenarien für Deutschland nehmen an, dass zukünftig "unvermeidbares" CO2, z. B. aus der Zementproduktion, als Kohlenstoffquelle für die inländische Herstellung von Kraftstoffen oder chemischen Grundstoffen genutzt wird. In diesem Artikel wird dargelegt, warum eine solche CO2-Nutzung verglichen mit einem alternativen Pfad einer geologischen Speicherung des CO2 und einem gleichzeitigen Import "grüner" Kraft- und Grundstoffe zumindest aus energetischer Sicht nachteilig erscheint.
The EU has set itself ambitious targets with regards to a significant reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions and has presented roadmaps depicting an overall decarbonisation of its economy by the middle of the century. In this context European policymakers and stakeholders are currently discussing the targets and the level of ambition of the 2030 climate and energy policy framework. The Commission is expected to present its own vision for the further development of the energy and climate policy framework in its White Paper "For a 2030 climate and energy policy framework". At this decisive point in the political debate the Wuppertal Institute presents a brief working paper that analyses some of the analytical work - particularly the underlying energy and GHG emission scenarios - behind the Commission's proposals to be presented in the forthcoming White Paper.
Several low-carbon energy roadmaps and scenarios have recently been published by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as by various stakeholders such as Eurelectric, ECF and Greenpeace. Discussions of these studies mainly focus on technology options available on the electricity supply side and mostly omit the significant challenges that all of the scenarios impose on the energy demand side.
A comparison of 5 decarbonisation scenarios from 4 of the most relevant recent scenario studies for the EU shows that all of them imply significant efficiency improvements in traditional appliances, usually well above levels historically observed over longer periods of time. At the same time they assume substantial electrification of transportation and heating. The scenarios suggest that both of these challenges need to be tackled successfully for decarbonising the energy system.
With shares of renewable electricity reaching at least 60 % of supply in 2050 in almost all of the decarbonisation scenarios, the adaptation of demand to variable supply becomes increasingly important. This aspect of demand side management should therefore be part of any policy mix aiming for a low-carbon power system.
Based on a quantitative analysis of 5 decarbonisation scenarios and a comparison with historical evidence we derive the (implicit) new challenges posed by the current low-carbon roadmaps and develop recommendations for energy policy on the electricity demand side.
The experience curve theory assumes that technology costs decline as experience of a technology is gained through production and use. This article reviews the literature on the experience curve theory and its empirical evidence in the field of electricity generation technologies. Differences in the characteristics of experience curves found in the literature are systematically presented and the limitations of the experience curve theory, as well as its use in energy models, are discussed. The article finds that for some electricity generation technologies, especially small-scale modular technologies, there has been a remarkably strong (negative) relationship between experience and cost for several decades. Conversely, for other technologies, especially large-scale and highly complex technologies, the experience curve does not appear to be a useful tool for explaining cost changes over time. The literature review suggests that when analysing past cost developments and projecting future cost developments, researchers should be aware that factors other than experience may have significant influence. It may be worthwhile trying to incorporate some of these additional factors into energy system models, although considerable uncertainties remain in quantifying the relevance of some of these factors.
International consensus is growing that a transition towards a low carbon society (LCS) is needed over the next 40 years. The G8, the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, as well as the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, have concluded that states should prepare their own Low-emission Plans or Low-emission Development Plans and such plans are in development in an increasing number of countries.
An analysis of recent long-term low emission scenarios for Germany shows that all scenarios rely heavily on a massive scale up of energy efficiency improvements based on past trends. However, in spite of the high potential that scenario developers assign to this strategy, huge uncertainty still exists in respect of where the efficiency potentials really lie, how and if they can be achieved and how much their successful implementation depends on more fundamental changes towards a more sustainable society (e.g. behavioural changes).
In order to come to a better understanding of this issue we specifically examine the potential for energy efficiency in relation to particular demand sectors. Our comparative analysis shows that despite general agreement about the high importance of energy efficiency (EE), the perception on where and how to achieve it differ between the analysed scenarios. It also shows that the close nexus between energy efficiency and non-technical behavioural aspects is still little understood. This leads us to the conclusion that in order to support energy policy decisions more research should be done on energy efficiency potential. A better understanding of its potential would help energy efficiency to fulfil its role in the transition towards a LCS.