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Die Transformationsprozesse hin zu einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung sind komplex.
Wie kann Wissenschaft dazu beitragen, dass neue Lösungen und Ideen in der Praxis zu Veränderung führen? Dieser Frage gehen die Autorinnen und Autoren am Beispiel der Gebäudeenergiewende nach. Eine transformative Forschung, die den neutralen Beobachterposten verlässt, braucht entsprechende Konzepte und Methoden: Wie kann Wissen aus unterschiedlichen Disziplinen und aus der Praxis integriert werden, um komplexe Sachverhalte und Zusammenhänge zu erklären und zu verstehen? Welche Rolle spielen komplexe (agentenbasierte) Modelle und Experimente dabei? Wie sieht der Methodenmix einer transformativen Wissenschaft aus, die Akteure bei Transformationsprozessen aktiv unterstützt? Illustriert werden diese Fragen am Beispiel des vom BMBF geförderten Forschungsprojektes "EnerTransRuhr".
Treibhausgasneutralität in Deutschland bis 2045 : ein Szenario aus dem Projekt SCI4climate.NRW
(2023)
Die klimapolitischen Ziele Deutschlands und der EU machen eine sehr schnelle und tiefgreifende Transformation sowohl der Energieversorgung als auch der energieverbrauchenden Sektoren notwendig. Diese Transformationsherausforderung betrifft nicht zuletzt die energieintensive Industrie in Deutschland, die vor grundlegenden technologischen Veränderungen wichtiger Produktionsprozesse steht. Die Herausforderungen für die Industrie werden durch die aktuelle Energiekrise weiter verschärft.
Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt das hier vorgestellte Klimaschutzszenario "SCI4climate.NRW-Klimaneutralität" (S4C-KN), das im Rahmen des vom Land NRW finanzierten Forschungsprojekts "SCI4climate.NRW" entwickelt wurde, die möglichen künftigen Entwicklungen in der energieintensiven Industrie in den Mittelpunkt der Analyse. Das Szenario analysiert diese Entwicklungen im Kontext eines gesamtwirtschaftlichen Transformationspfads hin zu einem klimaneutralen Deutschland im Jahr 2045.
The paper describes quantitative scenarios on a possible evolution of the EU petrochemical industry towards climate neutrality. This industry will be one of the remaining sectors in a climate neutral economy still handling hydrocarbon material to manufacture polymers. Concepts of a climate neutral chemical industry stress the need to consider the potential end-of-life emissions of polymers produced from fossil feedstock and draft the vision of using renewable electricity to produce hydrogen and to use renewable (hydro)carbon feedstock. The latter could be biomass, CO2 from the air or recycled feedstock from plastic waste streams.
The cost-optimization model used to develop the scenarios describes at which sites investments of industry in the production stock could take place in the future. Around 50 types of products, the related production processes and the respective sites have been collected in a database. The processes included cover the production chain from platform chemicals via intermediates to polymers. Pipelines allowing for efficient exchange of feedstock and platform chemicals between sites are taken into account as well. The model draws on this data to simulate capacity change at individual plants as well as plant utilization. Thus, a future European production network for petrochemicals with flows between the different sites and steps of the value chain can be sketched.
The scenarios described in this paper reveal how an electrification strategy could be implemented by European industry over time with minimized societal costs. Today's existing assets as well as geographical variance of energy supply and the development of demand for different plastic sorts are the major model drivers.
Finally, implications for the chemical industry, the energy system and national or regional governments are discussed.
The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at facing a three dimensional challenge by developing an integrated city roadmap balancing: low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The paper gives an overview of the first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi - the Chinese pilot city for the LCFC project. As a first step, a detailed emission inventory following the IPCC guidelines for Wuxi has been carried out. In a second step, the future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2050 were simulated in a current policy scenario (CPS). In parallel, selected aspects of material and water flows for the energy and the building sector were analyzed and modeled. In addition, recent and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Based on these findings, nine key sectors with high relevance to the three dimensions could be identified. Although Wuxi's government has started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that, for the shift towards a sustainable low carbon development, more ambitious steps need to be taken in order to overcome the challenges faced.
The transformation processes towards a sustainable development are complex. How can science contribute towards new solutions and ideas leading to change in practice? The authors of this book discuss these questions along the energy transition in the building sector.
A transformative research that leaves the neutral observer position needs appropriate concepts and methods: how can knowledge from different disciplines and from practice be integrated in order to be able to explain and understand complex circumstances and interrelations? What role do complex (agent-based) models and experiments play in this respect? Which mix of methods is required in transformative science in order to actively support the actors in transformation processes?
Theses questions are illustrated by the example of the BMBF funded project "EnerTransRuhr".
Contemporary combined heat and power (CHP) systems are often based on fossil fuels, such as natural gas or heating oil. Thereby, small-scale cogeneration systems are intended to replace or complement traditional heating equipment in residential buildings. In addition to space heating or domestic hot water supply, electricity is generated for the own consumption of the building or to be sold to the electric power grid.
The adaptation of CHP-systems to renewable energy sources, such as solid biomass applications is challenging, because of feedstock composition and heat integration. Nevertheless, in particular smallscale CHP technologies based on biomass gasification and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) offer significant potentials, also regarding important co-benefits, such as security of energy supply as well as emission reductions in terms of greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Besides emission or air quality regulations, the development of CHP technologies for clean on-site small-scale power generation is also strongly incentivised by energy efficiency policies for residential appliances, such as e.g. Ecodesign and Energy Labelling in the European Union (EU). Furthermore, solid residual biomass as renewable local energy source is best suited for decentralised operations such as micro-grids, also to reduce long-haul fuel transports. By this means such distributed energy resource technology can become an essential part of a forward-looking strategy for net zero energy or even smart plus energy buildings.
In this context, this paper presents preliminary impact assessment results and most recent environmental considerations from the EU Horizon 2020 project "FlexiFuel-SOFC" (Grant Agreement no. 641229), which aims at the development of a novel CHP system, consisting of a fuel flexible smallscale fixed-bed updraft gasifier technology, a compact gas cleaning concept and an SOFC for electricity generation. Besides sole system efficiencies, in particular resource and emission aspects of solid fuel combustion and net electricity effects need to be considered. The latter means that vastly less emission intensive gasifier-fuel cell CHP technologies cause significant less fuel related emissions than traditional heating systems, an effect which is further strengthened by avoided emissions from more emission intensive traditional grid electricity generation. As promising result, operation "net" emissions of such on-site generation installations may be virtually zero or even negative. Additionally, this paper scopes central regulatory instruments for small-scale CHP systems in the EU to discuss ways to improve the framework for system deployment.
Das Kreislaufwirtschaftsgesetz (KrWG) verlangt mit Bezug auf das Abfallvermeidungsprogramm (AVP) die Benennung zweckmäßiger Maßstäbe für Abfallvermeidungsmaßnahmen (AVM), anhand derer die Fortschritte bei der Entkopplung der mit der Abfallerzeugung verbundenen Auswirkungen auf Mensch und Umwelt vom Wirtschaftswachstum erfasst werden können. Das AVP benennt mögliche Indikatoren, allerdings ist unklar, inwieweit diese das Entstehen von Abfällen darstellen oder die Effekte von AVM abbilden können. Mögliche Bewertungsmaßstäbe für die Messung des Abfallvermeidungserfolges wurden analysiert, auf ihre Eignung geprüft und ein Set an Indikatoren erarbeitet, um eine kontinuierliche Messung des Erfolges von AVM zu ermöglichen.
Driving forces of changing environmental pressures from consumption in the European food system
(2020)
The paper provides an integrated assessment of environmental and socio-economic effects arising from final consumption of food products by European households. Direct and indirect effects accumulated along the global supply chain are assessed by applying environmentally extended input-output analysis (EE-IOA). EXIOBASE 3.4 database is used as a source of detailed information on environmental pressures and world input-output transactions of intermediate and final goods and services. An original methodology to produce detailed allocation matrices to link IO data with household expenditure data is presented and applied. The results show a relative decoupling between environmental pressures and consumption over time and shows that European food consumption generates relatively less environmental pressures outside Europe (due to imports) than average European consumption. A methodological framework is defined to analyze the main driving forces by means of a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The results of the SDA highlight that while technological developments and changes in the mix of consumed food products result in reductions in environmental pressures, this is offset by growth in consumption. The results highlight the importance of directing specific research and policy efforts towards food consumption to support the transition to a more sustainable food system in line with the objectives of the EU Farm to Fork Strategy.
Die Herstellung petrochemischer Grundstoffe ist sowohl energetisch als auch stofflich in Deutschland für rund 20 % der Nachfrage nach Mineralölprodukten verantwortlich. Das Gros fließt in die Produktion von Olefinen und Aromaten, welche als sogenannte Plattformchemikalien wiederum die Ausgangsbasis für die Herstellung von Polymeren und Kunststoffen darstellen. Letztgenannte sind von größter Relevanz für die Branche: Von den knapp 60 Milliarden Euro Umsatz, welche die deutsche petrochemische Industrie im Jahr 2021 generierte, entfiel gut die Hälfte auf das Marktsegment der Polymere. Daraus resultieren jedoch über die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette CO2-Emissionen von rund 50 Millionen Tonnen jährlich.
Eine Transformation der heutigen auf fossilen Rohstoffen basierenden petrochemischen Industrie hin zu einem auf erneuerbaren Rohstoffen basierenden zirkulären System kann somit einen bedeutenden Beitrag zu einer primärenergetisch effizienten und klimaneutralen Wirtschaftsweise leisten. Das vom Wuppertal Institut geleitete Forschungsprojekt GreenFeed exploriert gemeinsam mit den Verbundpartnern Karlsruher Institut für Technologie und Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum mögliche Pfade hin zu einem solchen System.
Vor diesem Hintergrund wird im vorliegenden Papier zunächst das heutige System der ökonomischen und stofflichen Synergiebeziehungen zwischen den Raffinerien und der chemischen Industrie analysiert. Im geografischen Fokus stehen dabei Deutschland und der ARRRA-Raum als bedeutendste Chemie-Region innerhalb Europas sowie inhaltlich der sehr relevante Teilbereich der Polymer-Produktion. Die Kerninhalte des Papiers sind:
1) Charakterisierung des petrochemischen Metabolismus in Deutschland, einschließlich Produktions-, Energie-, Feedstock- und Kohlenstoffbilanz sowie Infrastruktur- und Transport-Verflechtungen innerhalb dieses Systems und
2) regionale Vertiefungen in Form von insgesamt acht Steckbriefen über alle petrochemischen Kunststoff-Regionen in Deutschland sowie des Antwerpener und Rotterdamer Clusters.
In order to ensure security of supply in a future energy system with a high share of volatile electricity generation, flexibility technologies are needed. Industrial demand-side management ranks as one of the most efficient flexibility options. This paper analyses the effect of the integration of industrial demand-side management through the flexibilisation of aluminium electrolysis and other flexibilities of the electricity system and adjacent sectors. The additional flexibility options include electricity storage, heat storage in district heating networks, controlled charging of electric vehicles, and buffer storage in hydrogen electrolysis. The utilisation of the flexibilities is modelled in different settings with an increasing share of renewable energies, applying a dispatch model. This paper compares which contributions the different flexibilities can make to emission reduction, avoidance of curtailment, and reduction of fuel and CO2 costs, and which circumstances contribute to a decrease or increase of overall emissions with additional flexibilities. The analysis stresses the rising importance of flexibilities in an energy system based on increasing shares of renewable electricity generation, and shows that flexibilities are generally suited to reduce carbon emissions. It is presented that the relative contribution towards the reduction of curtailment and costs of flexibilisation of aluminium electrolysis are high, whereby the absolute effect is small compared to the other options due to the limited number of available processes.